瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260320

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market has shown a slight decline. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has dropped to 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with an average price decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased. Next week, one enterprise's equipment is planned to stop production, and 2 - 3 enterprises' stopped equipment may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, production is expected to continue to decline [6]. - Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and top - dressing for green - turning wheat is basically coming to an end. Policies on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea have been frequently issued, and some reserve supplies have been released in advance, cooling the market trading sentiment [6]. - The operating rate of high - nitrogen fertilizer in compound fertilizer plants has increased, leading to an increase in industrial consumption of urea. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to remain stable with a slight increase [6]. - This week, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises has continued to decline. Affected by multiple factors, the trading atmosphere in the market is fair, the overall shipment of urea factories is smooth, and some factories are short of supplies. In the short term, due to rigid demand and international market sentiment, urea is expected to maintain a balance between production and sales, with local shortages due to maintenance, and overall inventory may continue to decline [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1820 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market was stable with a slight decline this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with an average price decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: Production is expected to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. Inventory is likely to continue to decline. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1820 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.54% [9]. - As of March 20, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 53 [12]. - As of March 20, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 8499, an increase of 444 compared to last week [20]. - Spot Market - As of March 19, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [25]. - As of March 19, the FOB price of urea in China was 645 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - As of March 19, the urea basis was 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from last week [32]. 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of March 18, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36]. - As of March 19, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. - Industry - As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea producers was 151.94 tons, a decrease of 1.82 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [38]. - As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 tons, a decline of 11.64%. As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53% [42]. - In February 2026, urea exports were 11.15 tons, a month - on - month decline of 63.78%; the average export price was 398.52 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [45]. - Downstream - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from the previous period. It is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the next period [49]. - As of March 19, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 59.31%, an increase of 5.96 percentage points from last week [49].