瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was pressured by the expectation of domestic tapping, causing the rubber price center to decline. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the spot price was weak. The spot price center of domestic natural rubber also moved down, with the futures market experiencing wide - range fluctuations and the spot offer prices slightly decreasing. The market sentiment was weak, with limited actual buying [7]. - The tapping in Yunnan's domestic rubber - producing area is progressing steadily, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, replenishing raw materials at low prices. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the domestic sales supply is tight, so the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the concentrated shipment driven by price - increase news has supported the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,950 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,750 - 13,300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Performance: The domestic natural rubber market was pressured by the expectation of domestic tapping, with the rubber price center moving down. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the spot price was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price center also declined, with the futures market fluctuating widely and the spot offer prices slightly decreasing. The market sentiment was weak, with limited actual buying [7]. - Market Outlook: The tapping in Yunnan's domestic rubber - producing area is progressing steadily, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level, replenishing raw materials at low prices. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,950 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,750 - 13,300 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down with a weekly decline of 4.56%, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber closed down with a weekly decline of 3.42% [10]. - Position Analysis: Not provided with significant analysis content in the text. - Inter - term Spread: As of March 20, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 50, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - number rubber was - 90 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 125,440 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 48,082 tons, a decrease of 1,209 tons from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of March 19, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from last week. As of March 19, the basis of 20 - number rubber was 602 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 940 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last week [31][36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit: As of March 20, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 74.5 (+3.5) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 56.5 (-1.5) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price: Currently, large - scale tapping in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, has not started. The previous hail and rain weather had limited impact, and the rubber trees are growing well. Tapping is expected to start around the 20th - 22nd [42]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import Volume: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) import volume was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 1,106,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36% [45]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points. Currently, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continue to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses reduce inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory [49]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Tire Operating Rate: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the domestic sales supply is tight, so the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the concentrated shipment driven by price - increase news has supported the overall capacity utilization rate [52]. - Tire Export Volume: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's tire export volume was 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative tire export volume from January to February was 1,336,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82% and a year - on - year increase of 17.79%. The cumulative export volume of passenger car tires from January to February was 543,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 344,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52% and a year - on - year increase of 23.97%. The cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires from January to February was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [55]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. First Commercial Vehicle Network preliminarily predicts that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry is expected to achieve a slight year - on - year increase in March [58].