螺纹钢市场周报：需求回升+库存下滑，螺纹期价冲高回调-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of rebar have increased, and inventory has declined, with the bottom support moving up. It is recommended to conduct long - position trading above 3080 for the RB2605 contract, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [9] - Considering the high international oil prices supporting furnace materials, along with the recovery of rebar's apparent demand and the decline in inventory limiting the callback space, it is suggested to consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options when the futures price pulls back [58] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of March 20, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3280 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton week - on - week) [7] - Rebar production increased to 203.33 million tons (+8.03 million tons), year - on - year decrease of 22.88 million tons [7] - Apparent demand continued to increase to 208.09 million tons (+31.28 million tons), year - on - year decrease of 34.9 million tons [7] - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total rebar inventory was 889.41 million tons (-4.76 million tons), year - on - year increase of 52.41 million tons [7] - The steel mill profit rate was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, Israel said it would "comply" with the US President Trump's request to "suspend" subsequent air strikes on energy facilities; the Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% for the second consecutive time in the March 2026 FOMC meeting, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has significantly cooled. Domestically, the central bank requires to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - Cost aspect: The shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, while the arrivals decreased. The inventory at domestic ports has reached an inflection point. With the increase in hot metal production, the iron ore inventory will continue to be consumed. High - grade powder and lump ore resources are relatively scarce, which still support the ore price. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, the开工 of mines and coal washing plants continues to increase, and the clean coal inventory has declined. Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices and the energy sector [9] - Technical aspect: The RB2605 contract reached a high and then pulled back. The futures price is between the 5 - day and 20 - day moving average, and there is still technical support around 3100. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding upwards, and the red bar is shrinking [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price of RB2605 reached a high and then pulled back. It was weaker than the RB2610 contract, and the spread on the 20th was - 28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [15] - On March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipt volume was 65,786 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,135 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 56,092 lots, an increase of 48,862 lots compared with the previous week [21] - On March 20, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3333 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 20th was 157 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton [25] 3.3 Upstream Market - On March 20, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [30] - From March 9 - 15, 2026, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 23.17 million tons, a decrease of 3.805 million tons compared with the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 22.15 million tons, a decrease of 3.949 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 12.302 million tons, a decrease of 2.343 million tons. As of March 20, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 178.1418 million tons, a decrease of 1.3314 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3592 million tons, an increase of 0.359 million tons [34] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased to 72.83% (+0.44%), the daily average coke production was 507,600 tons (+30,000 tons), the coke inventory was 524,500 tons (-39,800 tons), the total coking coal inventory was 8.4718 million tons (+322,500 tons), and the available days of coking coal were 12.6 days (+0.41 days) [38] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In January - February 2026, China's crude steel production was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the daily average crude steel production was 2.718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6%. From January - February, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%; the cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [42] - On March 20, the blast furnace opening rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.695 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.811 million tons. On March 19, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 0.0803 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 0.2288 million tons compared with the same period last year [45] - On March 19, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building material production enterprises was 44.57%, an increase of 1.75 percentage points compared with the previous week and a decrease of 5.02 percentage points compared with the same period last year. This week, the average opening rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 66.89%, a week - on - week increase of 9.55 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.04 percentage points [49] - On March 19, the in - factory inventory of rebar of 137 building material production enterprises was 2.362 million tons, a decrease of 0.0342 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 0.1716 million tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 6.5321 million tons, a decrease of 0.0134 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 0.3525 million tons compared with the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0476 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.5241 million tons [52] 3.4.2 Demand Side - In January - February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%; the new housing construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%; the housing completion area was 63.2 million square meters, a decrease of 27.9% [55] - In January - February 2026, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 5.2721 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in February increased by 0.39% [55] 3.5 Options Market - Due to high international oil prices supporting furnace materials and the recovery of rebar's apparent demand and inventory decline limiting the callback space, it is recommended to consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options when the futures price pulls back [58]