豆类市场周报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all declined. The decline of the main soybean contract was 3.28%, the main soybean meal contract was 3.16%, and the main soybean oil contract was 0.71%. [5][7][8] - For soybeans, as the weather warms up, storage becomes difficult, but farmers still hold on to their stocks. Traders are less willing to buy due to lack of confidence in the market. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing. [5] - For soybean meal and soybeans, although the improvement of the Argentine soybean crop rating and the recovery of Brazilian exports suppress prices, geopolitical crises support prices. The domestic spot market has improved, and the market expects a possible tightening of imported soybean supplies in March - April. [6][7] - For soybean oil, the domestic supply - demand pattern is still loose. Price increases are mainly driven by external costs, but high prices suppress terminal demand. [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Soybeans: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybeans fell by 3.28%. As the weather warms up, storage becomes difficult, and geopolitical uncertainties add pressure. Traders are less active in purchasing, and downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing. [5] - Soybean Meal: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell by 3.16%. Geopolitical factors and South American weather affect prices. The domestic spot market has improved, and there is a short - term release of terminal procurement demand. [7] - Soybean Oil: This week, the main 2605 contract of soybean oil fell by 0.71%. There are speculations about the US bio - fuel policy. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and high prices suppress terminal demand. [8] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price Changes: The main 2605 contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all declined this week, with declines of 3.28%, 3.16%, and 0.71% respectively. [12][19][25] - Spread: As of March 19, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 86 yuan/ton. [31][34] - Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts: As of March 19, the net position of the top 20 in soybean futures was - 19,500 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean contract were 22,437 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 558,979 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean meal contract were 36,728 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 136,063 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main soybean oil contract were 25,342 lots. [39][44][50] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Soybeans: As of March 19, the spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main soybean contract was - 396 yuan/ton. [54] - Soybean Meal: As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton. [60] - Soybean Oil: As of March 19, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main soybean oil contract was 284 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week. [66] - Imported Soybean Premium: As of March 19, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 97 cents/bushel, a decrease of 18 cents/bushel from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 31 cents/bushel, a decrease of 51 cents/bushel from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was - 10 cents/bushel, an increase of 19 cents/bushel from last week. [70] - Imported Soybean Arrival Cost: As of March 19, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,516.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 896.05 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,835.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.9 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 681.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 823.15 yuan/ton from last week. [75] 3.4 Industry Situation - Weather: In the United States, the drought situation in soybean - producing areas has slightly eased compared with last week but is worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, there are sporadic showers in some areas, and the temperature in some areas is higher than normal. [78][82] - Upstream Supply: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans is 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory is 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected output of Brazilian soybeans is 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory is 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month; the expected output of Argentine soybeans is 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory is 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month. [86][90][94] - Domestic Situation: In the 11th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 4.20% from last week and an increase of 73.17% from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 17.51% from last week and a decrease of 8.16% from the same period last year; the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0834 million tons, a decrease of 0.97% from last week and an increase of 2.12% from the same period last year. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 11th week was 1.9694 million tons, an increase of 136,400 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.23%. In February 2026, the soybean import volume was 5.976 million tons, a decrease of 595,000 tons from January. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons, an increase of 36.17% from last month and 37.61% from the same period last year. As of March 19, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 49.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.9 yuan/ton from last week, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the March shipping schedule was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week. [108][111][114][119][122][125][128] - Substitute Situation: As of March 19, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil have narrowed, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil have widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.83, unchanged from last week. [133][136][140][143] - Transaction Situation: As of March 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 828,100 tons, an increase of 391,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 234,200 tons, an increase of 159,300 tons from last week. [148] - Downstream Situation: As of March 19, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week; the price of piglets was 23.34 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week. As of December 2025, the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. [152][157][160][165] 3.5 Options Market - No specific analysis content is provided, only a chart of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract is shown. [166]