铁矿石市场周报：港口库存结构差异，铁矿期价震荡偏强-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has cooled, the US - Iran conflict maintains high oil prices, and China maintains a loose policy. In the industrial aspect, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the domestic port inventory has reached an inflection point. With the increase in molten iron production, the iron ore inventory will continue to be digested. Coupled with the shortage of high - grade powder and lump ore resources, there is still support for the ore price. The I2605 contract is expected to fluctuate upward. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: As of the close on March 20, the price of the iron ore main contract was 815.5 (+4) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 (-5) yuan/dry ton [6]. - Shipment: The total global iron ore shipment increased by 151,000 tons week - on - week. From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.0488 billion tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.4644 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,300 tons [5][6]. - Arrival: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 380,500 tons. From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.317 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380,500 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.215 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394,900 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2302 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234,300 tons [6]. - Demand: The molten iron production increased by 69,500 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons [6]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased by 133,140 tons. As of March 20, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 17.81418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,140 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.89969 billion tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.03406 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,960 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 90,800 tons [6]. - Profit rate: The profit rate of steel mills was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [6]. - Market outlook: Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, the US - Iran conflict maintains high oil prices, and China maintains a loose policy. Technically, the I2605 contract of iron ore fluctuates upward, with the price running above 800, and the moving - average combination showing a long - position arrangement; the MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA rebound upward with a stable red column. The I2605 contract is expected to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: This week, the I2605 contract fluctuated upward. The price of the I2605 contract was stronger than that of the I2609 contract. On the 20th, the price difference was 34.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - Warehouse receipts and net positions: On March 20, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,400, a week - on - week increase of 200. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 18,636, a decrease of 10,818 compared with the previous week [20]. - Spot price: On March 20, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 20th, the basis was 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Arrival volume: From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.0488 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 151,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.4644 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,300 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.317 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380,500 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.215 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394,900 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2302 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234,300 tons [29]. - Inventory: As of March 20, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 17.81418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,140 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 335,920 tons, an increase of 35,900 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 8.5238 billion tons, a decrease of 17,980 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 5.49787 billion tons, a decrease of 66,130 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 11.71468 billion tons, a decrease of 138,100 tons. As of March 20, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 9.03406 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,960 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 281,150 tons, a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.13 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 days [32]. - Available days and BDI index: As of March 18, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 21 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2 days. As of March 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,057, a week - on - week increase of 29 [36]. - Import volume and capacity utilization: From January to February, China's cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 21.0023 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. As of March 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mine samples was 62.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%; the daily average output of refined powder was 393,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the inventory was 47,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,190 tons [40]. - Domestic production: From January to February 2026, China's iron ore raw ore output was 16.1644 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In February, the iron concentrate output of 433 domestic iron mine enterprises was 2.2618 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 332,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%; a year - on - year decrease of 42,000 tons, a decrease of 0.2% [43]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Crude steel production: From January to February 2026, China's crude steel output was 16.034 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the daily average crude steel output from January to February was 2.718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6% [48]. - Steel import and export: From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1.5591 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [48]. - Blast furnace operation: On March 20, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.17 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons [51]. 3.5 Option Market - Option strategy: Since the molten iron production has increased and the port inventory has ended its continuous increase, and the iron ore spot is firm due to the difference in port inventory, which still supports the futures price. It is suggested that when the iron ore futures price retraces, one can consider buying call options [54].