热轧卷板市场周报：成本支撑+需求回升，热卷期价重心上移-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has exceeded 3.1 million tons, indicating strong resilience in terminal demand. However, the international situation is volatile, and there are many uncertainties. It is recommended to consider long positions in the HC2605 contract above 3,250, while paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on March 20, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,297 (+2), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3,300 (+0) (unit: yuan/ton/week) [7] - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 300.21 (+4.95) (year - on - year - 24.12) (unit: 10,000 tons) [7] - Apparent demand increased. The current period's apparent demand was 310.51 (+15.15) (year - on - year - 20.14) (unit: 10,000 tons) [7] - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 461.29 (-10.3) (year - on - year +51.39) (unit: 10,000 tons) [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, Israel said it would "comply" with the "suspension" of subsequent air strikes on energy facilities proposed by US President Trump. The Fed maintained the interest rate between 3.5% - 3.75% for the second consecutive time in the March 2026 FOMC meeting, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has significantly cooled. Domestically, the central bank deployed key tasks for this year, requiring the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [9] - Cost aspect: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, while the arrival volume decreased. The inventory at domestic ports has reached an inflection point. As the molten iron production increases, the iron ore inventory will continue to be digested. In addition, the shortage of high - grade powder and lump ore resources still supports the ore price. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, the开工 of mines and coal washing plants continues to increase, the coking coal inventory declines, and geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices and the energy sector [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2605 contract fluctuated strongly. The daily K - line ran above multiple moving averages, and the moving average combination was in a long arrangement. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded upwards, and the red bar shrank [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract first rose and then回调. The HC2605 contract was stronger than the HC2610 contract. On the 20th, the price difference was - 6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [15] - On March 20, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipt volume of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 526,395 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47,912 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 25,559 contracts, an increase of 18,750 contracts compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.2 Spot Price - On March 20, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,313 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 20th, the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [27] 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Raw Material Prices - On March 20, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [32] 3.3.2 Iron Ore Supply - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 30.488 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.51 billion tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.644 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.223 billion tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.17 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.805 billion tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.15 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.949 billion tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.302 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.343 billion tons [38] - As of March 20, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 178.1418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3314 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3592 million tons, an increase of 0.0359 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 85.238 million tons, a decrease of 0.1798 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.9787 million tons, a decrease of 0.6613 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 117.1468 million tons, a decrease of 1.381 million tons. On March 19, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 249,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,020 tons and a year - on - year increase of 145,090 tons [42] 3.3.3 Coking Industry - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.83%, an increase of 0.44%; the daily coke output was 507,600 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the coke inventory was 524,500 tons, a decrease of 39,800 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.4718 million tons, an increase of 322,500 tons; the available days of coking coal were 12.6 days, an increase of 0.41 days [46] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In January - February 2026, China's crude steel production was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the average daily crude steel production in January - February was 2.718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [50] - On March 20, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.17 percentage points; the daily molten iron output was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0695 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. On March 19, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.0021 million tons, an increase of 0.0495 million tons compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2412 million tons [53] - On March 19, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 849,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,320 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8,900 tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 3.7633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 522,800 tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.6129 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 513,900 tons [56] 3.4.2 Downstream Demand - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% [59] - From January to December 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 266.9749 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the production of household refrigerators was 109.2436 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household washing machines was 125.1678 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [59]