白糖市场周报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.15%. Thailand's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of March 11 showed an increase in cane crushing and sugar production, with rising sugar content and sugar - making rate. Short - term supply continues to increase, but the raw sugar price may rise due to energy market disturbances. In the domestic market, as of now, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 season, 50 less than the same period last year, and the first peak of crushing completion may come next week. Zhengzhou sugar prices are boosted by the external market, and future attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [6]. - Future factors to watch include domestic imports and demand [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.15% [6]. - Market Outlook: Thailand's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of March 11 had a cumulative cane crushing volume of 88.3668 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%; sugar production was 9.7927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.98%; the sugar content of cane was 12.80%, an increase of 0.22% compared to 12.58% in the same period last year; the sugar - making rate was 111.08%, an increase of 0.269%. In the domestic market, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 season, 50 less than the same period last year, and the first peak of crushing completion may come next week. Zhengzhou sugar prices are boosted by the external market [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar May contract increased this week, with a weekly increase of about 7.01%. As of March 10, 2026, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 208,755 lots, a decrease of 36,279 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 198,364 lots, an increase of 5,051 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 407,119 lots, a decrease of 31,228 lots from the previous week [13]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.61 cents per pound, an increase of 0.34 cents per pound from last week [17]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.15%. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 115,394 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 16,342 [20][27]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 30 yuan per ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 11 yuan per ton [32]. - Spot Market: As of March 20, the price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,450 yuan per ton, and the price of sugar in Nanning was 5,440 yuan per ton [38]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,294 yuan per ton, a decrease of 123 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 50 yuan per ton, a decrease of 204 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,241 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 144 yuan per ton, a decrease of 216 yuan per ton from last week [44]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: Not detailed in the content about the specific increase situation, just mentioned that the supply side is mainly about production increase [45]. - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: Not detailed in the content [48]. - Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In February 2026, China's sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 314.29% and a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sugar import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.33% [52]. - Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate: The sugar sales rate is average, but no specific data is provided [53]. - Demand Side - Output of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks: Not detailed in the content [59]. 4. Options and Stock - Related Market - Options Market: This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [63]. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented in a chart, but no specific analysis is provided [67].