棉花（纱）市场周报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.30%. According to the USDA report, for the week ending March 12, 2026, the net increase in export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 196,700 bales, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 273,900 bales, a 26% decrease from the previous week but an 8% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Both the export contract volume and shipment volume of U.S. cotton decreased during the week. In the domestic market, on the supply side, cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year, and port inventories continued to grow. From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 370,000 tons of cotton, a 41% increase year - on - year. On the consumption side, the "Golden March" demand in the textile industry started slowly. Spinning mills continued to resume production, yarn transactions were good, and inventories decreased significantly. It is expected that cotton prices may continue to rise after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.30% [5]. - Market Outlook: U.S. cotton export contract volume and shipment volume decreased. In the domestic market, supply increased and consumption showed signs of recovery. It is expected that cotton prices may continue to rise after adjustment [5]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory conditions [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - U.S. Cotton Market: This week, the price of the U.S. cotton May contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 3.30%. As of March 10, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of U.S. cotton were 115,992 lots, an increase of 3,732 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 137,023 lots, a decrease of 3,334 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 21,031 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots from the previous week [11]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: For the week ending March 12, 2026, the net increase in export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 196,700 bales, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 79.35 cents per pound, an increase of 3.6 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Futures Market: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of about 1.30%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract decreased by 0.42%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 188,581 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 375 lots. As of this week, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,400, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 267 [21][27][33]. - Spot Market: As of March 20, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,649 yuan per ton. The price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,100 yuan per ton, the CY index of OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,450 yuan per ton, and the CY index of OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,000 yuan per ton [41][52]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of March 19, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,155 yuan per ton, an increase of 381 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,287 yuan per ton, an increase of 623 yuan per ton from last week. The port pick - up price of imported cotton yarn C21S was 20,613 yuan per ton, the port pick - up price of C32S was 22,015 yuan per ton, and the port pick - up price of JC32S was 23,670 yuan per ton [55]. - Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit: As of March 19, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,742 yuan per ton, a decrease of 152 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 394 yuan per ton from last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. - Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In February 2026, China's total cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative cotton imports were 370,000 tons, a 41% increase year - on - year. In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [66]. - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% [69]. - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume: From January to February 2026, China's textile and garment export volume was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and garment exports were 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [74]. - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.75% [78]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented, but specific data is not further described in the text [79]. - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongfa: A chart of the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa is provided, but no specific analysis is given [82].