每日商品期市纵览-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of various commodities is affected by geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, supply - demand relationships, and other factors. Different commodities show different trends such as short - term adjustment, shock, and strength or weakness [1][2][3] - The long - term trend of some commodities is still influenced by fundamental supply - demand relationships and macro - economic factors, and there are opportunities and risks in different industries [10][12][13] Summary by Category Financial Futures - Stock Index: The Fed maintains interest rates, slowing down the rate - cut expectation. The strengthening of the US dollar index and Middle - East conflicts put pressure on the A - share market. In the short term, the stock index continues to adjust. In the medium - to - long - term, the bullish logic remains stable, and large - cap stock indices are relatively resistant to decline [2] - Treasury Bonds: The escalation of the Middle - East situation triggers risk - aversion sentiment. The central bank releases signals to stabilize the market. The easing remarks of the US and Israel lead to a decline in oil prices, and the risk - aversion sentiment may weaken. Short - term bond futures may fall [2] Container Shipping (Europe Line) - Geopolitical tensions threaten key shipping lanes. Some shipping companies' price - holding actions are positive, but the traditional off - season in April, sufficient cabin supply, and possible restoration of trade flow in the Strait lead to short - term high - level shocks [3] Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict raises oil prices, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Uncertain US tariff policies and supply disruptions in South Africa lead to short - term weak shocks [4] - Gold and Silver: The Middle - East situation squeezes the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and price drops significantly. Global central banks' hawkish policies and inflation concerns lead to short - term weak shocks [5] - Copper: Multiple macro - negatives and fundamental contradictions lead to a large outflow of market funds. The copper price breaks through key support levels, and the supply is in surplus, with high inventory pressure [5] - Aluminum: The US - Iran conflict raises energy prices, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Market concerns about liquidity tightening and economic recession lead to a panic decline in aluminum prices, and the short - term trend is dominated by the war situation [6] - Alumina: Domestic production capacity decline due to some enterprises' maintenance, but new production capacity in Guangxi is about to be released. Overseas, geopolitical factors lead to a decline in spot prices and an increase in import costs, with a mixed fundamental situation [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and the lower support is strong due to raw material shortages and tax - refund policy impacts [7] - Zinc: The impact of Iran on the supply side is small. The import TC declines, and the domestic smelting end maintains production enthusiasm. Downstream demand is delayed, and inventory pressure is large. The zinc price is under upward pressure [8][9] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The resumption of Indonesian wet - process production capacity, seasonal decline in nickel ore shipments, and weak demand in the new - energy off - season. The game between nickel iron and scrap stainless steel intensifies. The release rhythm of stainless - steel demand is the key variable [9] - Tin: Panic sentiment deepens. On the supply side, raw - material supply has a buffer. On the demand side, inventory is high, and spot trading is sluggish. The tin price is in a weak shock [9] - Lithium Carbonate: The Middle - East situation is uncertain, affecting the demand side. However, the long - term growth logic of downstream demand supports the price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual production and inventory - reduction speed in March [10] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The industry is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. Wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern, and track the "anti - involution" process and marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [10] - Lead: On the supply side, primary lead smelting resumes steadily, and the import window opens. On the demand side, terminal consumption recovers slowly. The lead price is expected to oscillate and gradually stop falling [11] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The Iran geopolitical conflict raises energy prices. Rumors of procurement restrictions on BHP iron ore and post - holiday restocking demand lead to tight tradable inventory at ports. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils, weak real - estate new construction, and export resistance limit the rebound height [12] - Iron Ore: The iron - ore price strengthens in the short term due to negotiation events, but the sustainability is weak. Shipping is affected by weather, and freight increases limitedly. The Middle - East Strait situation affects the arrival at Chinese ports. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The overall supply - demand situation is oversupply [13] - Coking Coal and Coke: In March - April, the importance of real - data verification increases. Geopolitical factors may suppress steel exports, and the black - metal prices may face downward pressure. Although the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom, the surplus problem restricts the price elasticity [14] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The lower - cost support of ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit the upward space [15] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The US - Iran conflict first raises oil prices, and then the price cools down due to some news. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and tight storage capacity lead to increased fluctuations [16] - Fuel Oil: The supply tightening drives the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil sets new historical highs, and high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a high level. The short - term strong pattern in Asia is difficult to change [16] - Asphalt: Geopolitical disturbances lead to short - term upward pulses in oil prices, overriding the asphalt's own fundamentals [17] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Geopolitical situations dominate. The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is unstable, and Asian refineries' raw - material supply is blocked. Domestic pure - benzene maintenance is advanced, and styrene devices reduce production. The price is in a strong shock before the Strait navigation problem is solved [17] - LPG: Geopolitical risks increase supply risks, and the cost - side impetus strengthens. Domestic supply shrinks slightly, but the arrival volume increases. The price fluctuation center moves up, and the volatility is high [18] - Methanol: The US - Iran situation dominates the market. The trading is slow. The Strait may be partially opened, and the MTO profit expansion supports the methanol price. The import expectation of the 05 contract changes, and the price fluctuates violently [18] - PP and Propylene: The fundamentals support the prices. Before the geopolitical risks are removed, the prices are expected to maintain a strong shock. Follow - up attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [18] - Plastic: Under the expectation of supply reduction, the near - month support is strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [19] - Rubber: The disappointment of rate - cut expectation, stagflation concerns, and risk - aversion sentiment put pressure on natural rubber. Domestic production areas start test - tapping, and imports decrease. Synthetic rubber is supported by oil prices and butadiene supply, and the price fluctuates widely [19] - Urea: The US - Iran war creates a "hard gap" in global urea supply, pushing up international prices. Domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the rising international fertilizer prices transmit bullish sentiment [20] - Soda Ash: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure continues. The rigid demand is stable and weak. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the long - term supply is expected to remain high [20] - Glass: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting is declining. High intermediate inventory is a risk point. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [21] - Caustic Soda: The domestic device operation is stable, and short - term supply tightens. The industry inventory is high, and the overall supply is loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the export inquiry increases, supporting the futures price. The futures and spot prices show some differentiation [22] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Low pig prices lead to weak fresh - meat sales of slaughtering enterprises, and the initiative to store in warehouses weakens. The market lacks clear positives, and the futures price continues to decline [23] - Oilseeds: The Sino - US negotiation in April is postponed. In the short term, the spot price is supported by slow Brazilian shipments and rising freight. In the medium term, the large - supply logic remains unchanged. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is repaired [23] - Oils: The oil market follows the crude - oil trend. The government's indecision on B50 and export policies leads to a decline in market sentiment. Short - term attention should be paid to the Iran situation and crude - oil price changes [24] - Cotton: The supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price. The implementation of the import - quota policy narrows the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. The cotton price may have a small - scale correction, but the downstream consumption is strong, and the correction space is limited [24] - Eggs: In the short term, the egg price may remain weakly stable. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the demand support and rising breeding costs will drive the egg price to rise [25][26] - Apples: The apple futures market is strongly supported by fundamentals and delivery logic. The shortage of delivery products in the 05 contract supports the price, and the market maintains a strong shock [26] - Red Dates: The market focus is on the demand side. The downstream sales are mediocre, and the price is under pressure, mainly in a low - level shock [26]