鸡蛋市场周报：高存栏压力仍存，盘面维持窄幅震荡-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the egg market showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slight decline. The 2605 contract closed at 3409 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 24 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The supply side has a high inventory, and the elimination of old hens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories resuming work, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started in advance, significantly boosting the off - season demand. The feed cost has increased, and farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices, leading to a rebound in the spot price. The rise in the spot price further weakens the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. The egg market will maintain an oscillating trend, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The egg price showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slight decline. The 2605 contract closed at 3409 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 24 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - Market Outlook: The supply side has high inventory and slow old - hen elimination, but demand is boosted by school reopenings, factory resumptions, and pre - Qingming stocking. Feed costs have increased, and farmers are holding up prices. The spot price has rebounded, weakening the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. The market will maintain an oscillating trend, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The May contract of egg futures oscillated slightly downwards. The trading volume was 165,133 lots, a decrease of 3,126 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was +576, and the change in net long positions was not significant [13]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 5 [17]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was reported at 3,294 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 167 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 115 yuan per ton [23]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The spread between the May and July contracts of egg futures was reported at - 34 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was at a medium level in the same period [27]. - Related Product Spot Prices: As of March 19, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 16.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 4.85 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - Elimination Index and Age: As of December 31, 2025, the national elimination laying hen index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national elimination hen age was reported at 500 days [44]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of March 19, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,455.29 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,370 yuan per ton [48]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of March 13, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.33 yuan per chicken. The average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. - Egg Chicken and Elimination Chicken Prices: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.5 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main production areas was reported at 10.4 yuan per kilogram [58]. - Egg Monthly Export Volume: In January 2026, the total egg export volume was 14,538.34 tons, an increase of 3,317.31 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 29.56%. It decreased by 360.38 tons compared to the same period last month [64]. 4. Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [66].