建信期货能源化工周报-20260320

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, affecting the supply of energy products. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices will remain strong but volatile. The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and a substantial contraction in supply, maintaining a relatively strong and upward - trending pattern. The pulp market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with low - level fluctuations. The soda ash market is under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. The glass market is in a dilemma, with high inventory and potential production capacity release suppressing the upside, while losses and cold - repair expectations provide some support [7][53][87][126][145] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures have different price trends. The Middle East situation affects supply, and the IEA's joint release of reserves and the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela can relieve some supply tensions. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices are strong but volatile, and a bullish call spread can be considered [7][8] - Fundamental Changes: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Middle Eastern countries are forced to cut production. The US takes measures to relieve supply tensions. High - frequency data shows changes in US crude oil and refined product inventories. The EIA has adjusted its supply - demand expectations and raised the average price forecast for Brent in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10][11] Polyester - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: Geopolitical conflicts lead to cost - push price increases. PX and PTA enterprises may cut production, and the polyester downstream has increased demand but poor sales. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, and the market price is expected to be strong [28][29] - Main Driving Forces: The downstream consumption of polyester is weak, and the support for PTA and ethylene glycol is limited. PX prices may rise steadily, and PTA production is expected to increase. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong due to supply and cost factors [30][32][34] Polyolefins - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins have different trends. The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with strong cost support and supply contraction, but weak demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways trend in the short term [42][53][54] - Fundamental Changes: The production of polypropylene and polyethylene has different changes, with some devices restarting and some under maintenance. The production profit of different raw materials varies. The inventory of polyolefins is high, and the downstream start - up level is different [55][56][67] Pulp - Market Review and Outlook: The pulp futures price has declined. The macro - environment and fundamentals affect the market, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and low - level fluctuations [86][87] - Fundamental Changes: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, inventory, and downstream market conditions show different trends, with overall supply exceeding demand [88][93][103] Soda Ash - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The soda ash futures price shows a downward trend. In the short term, the price may fluctuate greatly, and in the long term, it is under downward pressure. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance [126][128] - Soda Ash Market Situation: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, with high production and inventory. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure remains. The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [130][135][142] Glass - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The glass futures price continues to decline. The price is in a dilemma, with high inventory suppressing the upside and losses providing some support. It is necessary to pay attention to real - estate sales data [145][146] - Glass Market Situation: The glass supply is at a low level, with reduced production and capacity utilization. The inventory shows a contraction trend but remains high. The spot price is stable with a slight increase, affected by cost and supply factors. The import and export volume has different trends, and the upstream soda ash is in an oversupply situation. The downstream consumption is weak [148][151][155]