有色金属周报-20260320

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report - Date: March 20, 2026 - Industry: Non-ferrous Metals (Focus on Zinc) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is bearish this week, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest rate decision and the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict. The Fed's hawkish stance and geopolitical tensions have led to a global market slump. Non - ferrous metals show anti - decline differentiation based on fundamentals. Zinc is weak due to high domestic and overseas inventory, but with improving domestic consumption and inventory de - stocking, the deep - decline space is limited, and it will mainly oscillate and repair at low levels [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zinc - Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The macro - sentiment is bearish, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest rate decision and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The Fed's hawkish speech and the escalation of the Middle East situation have led to a global market slump. Non - ferrous metals show anti - decline differentiation. Zinc is weak due to high inventory, and the de - stocking inflection point has not been confirmed [7] - This week, the correlations between the US dollar, the RMB, and LME zinc are 22% and - 6% respectively, compared with - 89% and - 69% last week. The SHFE/LME ratio is 7.37, and the import loss per ton of zinc ingots narrows to - 2435.8 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrows. LME inventory is 117,850 tons, and 0 - 3C is 34.83. Investment funds' long and short positions both increase, with a net long of 4,868 lots [8] Operation Suggestions - The Fed maintains the interest rate but has a hawkish attitude. With the digestion of negative factors, the price rebounds slightly in the later week, but the zinc ingot import window remains closed. Overseas inventory is high and consumption is weak, while domestic social inventory starts to de - stock, and downstream consumption gradually meets the peak - season expectations. In the short term, the weakness of SHFE zinc has not reversed, but the deep - decline space is limited, and it will mainly oscillate and repair at low levels [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain flat, and the import TC index continues to decline. In March, domestic zinc concentrate supply is expected to increase, and the average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 remains at 1,550 yuan/metal ton. The import TC index drops by 6.02 to 5.23 US dollars/dry ton [14] - Zinc ingot production in March is expected to increase month - on - month. In February, refined zinc production decreases by 56,000 tons to 504,600 tons. Although the production profit of refined zinc enterprises is about - 2400 yuan/ton, the comprehensive profit has no obvious loss, and production remains at a high level [14] Demand Side - Galvanizing: The operating rate is 59.7%, a 6.7% month - on - month increase. After the end of environmental control in the north, the industry has basically returned to the pre - Spring Festival level. Terminal demand is released, orders are improving, and finished - product inventory is de - stocking. The operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week [15] - Die - cast zinc alloy: The operating rate is 51.61%, a 3.26% month - on - month increase. Terminal procurement increases, driving better sales and inventory de - stocking. However, price fluctuations of zinc, aluminum, and copper squeeze profits, and some enterprises raise processing fees [15] - Zinc oxide: The operating rate is 55.36%, a 2.63% month - on - month increase. Zinc price decline leads to increased raw - material inventory and decreased finished - product inventory. Orders of leading enterprises are normal, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise with the warming of demand [16] Spot Market - Domestic inventory decreases by 9,700 tons to 266,100 tons as of March 19. LME zinc inventory is 117,850 tons, and there is a large - scale warehousing in Singapore on March 17, pushing the inventory above 118,000 tons [17]