油料周报-20260322

Report Information - Report Title: Oil Weekly Report, Oilseed Industry Weekly Report - Date: March 20, 2026 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of soybean meal tend to be flat, with market focus on short - term supply disruptions and the future arrival pressure of a large amount of Brazilian soybeans [2]. - Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal in the short term, showing a volatile pattern [5]. - Overseas biodiesel speculation has pushed up overseas soybean oil prices, but the uncertainty of Middle East events has increased the volatility of oils [38]. - The seasonal production reduction of palm oil in the origin has ended, with high overseas and domestic inventory pressures [42]. - The short - term fundamentals of rapeseed oil have changed little, with the market continuing to pay attention to the overall oil price fluctuations and potential changes in Canadian imports [46]. Summary of Each Category Soybean Meal Supply - Short - term imported soybean meal is supported by rising ocean freight; there is significant supply pressure from future arrivals during the South American soybean harvest season [2]. - Trump's postponed visit to China may also affect the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. Demand - The continuous weakness of hog prices leads to weak demand for feed [3]. Inventory - The overall inventory level remains high, and high inventory may become the norm under the expectation of future South American arrivals [4]. Rapeseed Meal Supply - The supply of raw materials has increased as imported Australian and Canadian rapeseeds have arrived at ports, and the supply of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills has eased [6]. - The development of Middle East events affects the market's expectation of rising freight rates [6]. Demand - The peak season for aquaculture has not arrived, so overall demand is flat. Attention should be paid to the release of aquaculture demand from April to June [7]. Inventory - The inventory of coastal granular rapeseed meal has rebounded slightly from the low point, and the overall inventory level is not high [8]. Soybean Oil Supply - The raw material supply still depends on the change of imported soybeans. Domestic soybean crushing is weak due to low demand, so the supply pressure of soybean oil is not significant. Currently, the import cost is seriously inverted [39]. Demand - It is the off - season for demand. The trading volume of bulk oil is average, and there is a certain degree of substitution among different oils [40]. Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly higher than the historical level, with certain inventory pressure [41]. Palm Oil Supply - The March MPOB report shows that the supply has started to increase seasonally, but due to the serious price inversion between the domestic and international markets, the increase in domestic supply is limited [43]. Demand - The demand for edible oil is weak after the festival. Palm oil has a price - substitution advantage, and the high price of soybean oil leads to substitution consumption of palm oil [44]. Inventory - The inventory in the origin is high. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia exceeds expectations, and the inventories of major producing countries remain at high levels [45]. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Production has recovered. The crushing of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the tight supply in the East and South China markets. The tense situation in the Middle East has also increased market concerns about rising freight rates [47]. Demand - It is the off - season for seasonal demand, and the overall demand for oils is moderately weak [48]. Inventory - The inventory has started to slow down its decline from a low level, with a slight month - on - month increase, but it still remains relatively low overall [49].