集运早报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 04 contract is entering the delivery logic, with a neutral valuation. The future lies in the contradiction between the cargo - collection and price - adjustment of the European line and the change in fuel costs, and opportunities for basis repair should be observed [3]. - The 10 contract follows the cost - support logic, and fuel costs continuously affect its valuation, with high geopolitical risks [3]. - The core of other far - month contracts is the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for a long time, it will disrupt the global supply chain and the high oil price will harm the European economy. Due to the complex transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line and high uncertainty, it is recommended to avoid the high - volatility risk of far - month unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities from the valuation of the monthly spread [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2604 closed at 1944.0 with a 1.51% increase, EC2605 at 2191.1 with a 1.07% increase, EC2606 at 2422.3 with a 1.51% increase, EC2607 at 2568.7 with a 1.53% increase, EC2608 at 2377.0 with a 0.46% increase, EC2609 at 1748.5 with a 2.13% increase, EC2610 at 1569.8 with a 0.53% increase, and EC2612 at 1758.7 with a 0.91% increase [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, and the open interest of some contracts has changed. For example, the open interest of EC2604 decreased by 2145, while that of EC2606 increased by 245 [2]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads such as EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 have different values and changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market Data - European Line Spot: In Week 13, MSK's price was flat at 2250 US dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 US dollars, and some voyages were 2200 US dollars (2000 US dollars for large orders). The average spot price converted to the futures盘面 is about 1700 - 1800 points. In Week 14, MSK reported 2650 US dollars, a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week [4]. - Price Increase Announcements: COSCO announced a price increase for the European line in April to 5100 US dollars, and CMA issued a price - increase letter for April at 3500 US dollars [4]. Index Data - Törnär Index: Updated weekly on Mondays, the value on March 16, 2026, was 1556.49 points, with a 0.71% increase from the previous period and a 5.61% increase from two periods ago [2]. - SCFI Index (European Line): Updated on Fridays, the value on March 20, 2026, was 1636 US dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period and an 11.43% increase from two periods ago [2]. News - Iran stated the passage principles of the Strait of Hormuz on March 23. Ships from the US, Israel, and other countries participating in aggression do not meet the conditions for normal and non - hostile passage and will be dealt with according to law. Non - hostile ships from other countries can pass safely after coordinating with the Iranian authorities as long as they do not participate in or cooperate with aggression against Iran and comply with safety regulations [5].