LPG早报-20260323

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures market has risen significantly. The current situation of domestic PG is a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term in China. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, it is likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is blocked for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From March 16 to March 20, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed different degrees of change. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 to 6300, East China LPG from 6122 to 6189, and Shandong LPG from 5530 to 5990. The propane CFR South China price first rose and then fell, from 980 to 1093. The CP forecast contract price increased from 582 to 600. The price of Shandong alkylated oil remained at 9200, while the paper import profit changed from - 1420 to - 2207, and the main basis changed from - 154 to - 545 [1]. Market Indicators - The basis is - 1057 (- 736), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (- 68). The number of warehouse receipts is 3100 lots (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 5950 (+520). Shandong civil LPG is 5990 (+440), East China civil LPG is 6189 (+30), and South China civil LPG is 6300 (+150). The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), and the oil - gas price ratio has declined. The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (- 15.5). The South China CP propane landing discount is 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (- 54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread is - 76 (+52) [1]. Profit and Inventory - The spot profit of domestic PDH to propylene has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined. The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity ratio is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].