原油成品油早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices continued to rise. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remained low, with only 3 tankers passing through on March 18 and no crude oil tankers. The average daily tanker traffic volume in the past week was less than 2. The strait was effectively paralyzed. Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours. Iran responded that if its power plants were attacked, it would target energy and oil facilities in the entire Middle East, leading to a long - term increase in oil prices. The premium of Oman crude oil rose to $60 per barrel, and the spread between Brent and WTI reached the highest level in nearly a decade due to the escalation of the Middle East situation. On March 20, the US approved a 30 - day authorization to conditionally relax sanctions on Iranian oil products. Recently, the global floating storage has significantly reduced its inventory, with an average daily reduction of 1.8 million barrels. Goldman Sachs estimated that there were about 131 million barrels of Russian oil and 105 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea, which could offset the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. In the case of the actual interruption of the strait, the price in the compliant market still faces an upward drive. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will have constructive dialogue with Iran on the strait's navigation and geopolitical situation next week [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Daily News - On March 22, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was responding to the Iranian attack, targeting the Iranian regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Israeli military would directly attack the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as their infrastructure and economic assets [3] - In response to Trump's "ultimatum" to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said that if Iran's power plants and other infrastructure were targeted, all important energy and oil facilities in the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets, and oil prices would rise in the long term [3] - Gulf countries are worried that Trump will leave a mess. They said that Iran's control of the strait was "unacceptable." US measures to allow the delivery and sale of Iranian oil already on board were seen as a stop - gap measure that did not solve the core problem of the effective cut - off of the world's most critical energy transportation route [4] - The Iranian Navy guided an Indian LPG tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which seemed to confirm that Tehran was trying to implement traffic control in the strait, allowing friendly vessels to pass safely while making others fear attacks [4] 3.2. Weekly Inventory - In the week ending March 13, US crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, a 1.39% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase compared to the same period last year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 2.527 million barrels [4] 3.3. Weekly View - This week, oil prices continued to rise. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz was low, and the strait was effectively paralyzed. Trump's threat and Iran's response led to concerns about a long - term increase in oil prices. The premium of Oman crude oil rose, and the spread between Brent and WTI reached a nearly ten - year high. The US approved a 30 - day authorization to conditionally relax sanctions on Iranian oil products. Global floating storage has significantly reduced its inventory, and there is an upward drive for oil prices in the compliant market. Attention should be paid to possible constructive dialogue between Trump and Iran next week [5]