大越期货沪铝早报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, approaching domestic supply ceiling, weak downstream demand, and volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2] - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, with a basis of 60 and a spot price of 24080, which is considered neutral [2] - The inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased by 35619 tons to 452044 tons compared to last week, regarded as neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, also considered neutral [2] - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2] - In the long - term, carbon - neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and be beneficial to aluminum prices, but macro - sentiment is changeable and the Middle East events have led to a collective decline in non - ferrous metals [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Carbon - neutrality controls capacity expansion, domestic supply is near the ceiling, downstream demand is not strong, real estate is weak, and short - term macro - sentiment is changeable [2] - Basis: Spot price is 24080, basis is 60, and the spot is at a premium to the futures, neutral [2] - Inventory: SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 35619 tons to 452044 tons last week, neutral [2] - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, neutral [2] - Main Positions: The main net positions are long and long positions are increasing, bullish [2] - Expectation: Carbon - neutrality drives the transformation of the aluminum industry, long - term positive for aluminum prices, but macro - sentiment is changeable, and Middle East events affect non - ferrous metals [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多Factors: Carbon - neutrality controls capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply, and there is an expected interest rate cut [3] - 利空Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3] - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3] Daily Summary - Spot Price: Shanghai yesterday's spot middle price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu was 70690, down 450; Yangtze River today's Shanghai price was 70870, down 400 [4] - Inventory: LME daily inventory was 74750, down 425; SHFE daily inventory was 136300, up 29728; SHFE weekly inventory data is incomplete [4] Supply - Demand Balance | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.61 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.31 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [23]