大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures oscillate and rebound, closing with a positive line, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a greater increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volume - enhanced rebound. As the price rebounded, long - position investors actively entered the market, while short - position investors were even more active. Therefore, the market may oscillate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price closed below the moving - average system, losing short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak zone, alleviating oversold conditions. The trend indicator rose, with the strength of long - position investors decreasing and that of short - position investors increasing, and the advantage of short - position investors expanding. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2605 will oscillate and weaken [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, leading to a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons. The overall situation is bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price is 22,970, and the basis is +35, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On March 20, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 117,675 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 95 tons to 102,509 tons compared to the previous day, showing a bullish sign [2]. 3.4 Futures Market Quotes - On March 20, for different delivery months of zinc futures, the trading volumes, prices, and changes in open interest varied. For example, for the 2604 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,925, the opening price was 22,520, the highest price was 23,090, the lowest price was 22,390, the closing price was 22,930, and the settlement reference price was 22,810, with a change of - 115. The total trading volume of all contracts was 267,062 lots, and the total open interest was 198,850 lots, with a decrease of 10,857 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market Quotes - On March 20, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate's domestic spot TC was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import comprehensive TC was 20 dollars/10 tons. For 0 zinc, the price in Aoshi was 22,920 - 23,020 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,880 - 22,980 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,910 - 23,010 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,910 - 23,010 yuan/ton, with price increases [4]. 3.6 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From March 9 to March 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets first increased and then decreased. Compared with March 12, the total inventory decreased by 21,000 tons, and compared with March 16, it decreased by 72,000 tons [5]. 3.7 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On March 20, the total zinc warehouse receipt in the SHFE was 102,509 tons, with a decrease of 95 tons. The warehouse receipts in different regions had different changes, such as a decrease of 50 tons in Shanghai, 552 tons in Guangdong, and an increase of 507 tons in Tianjin [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On March 20, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 117,675 tons. The registered warehouse receipts were 111,600 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 6,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 5.16% [7]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price - On March 20, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 19,820 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton, while in some regions like Hechi and Chifeng, it was 19,720 yuan/ton, also with an increase of 80 yuan/ton [9]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On March 20, the price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhouhai was 23,220 yuan/ton, from Sanming Zhongxin was 23,650 yuan/ton, etc. [12]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - In February 2026, the planned production of refined zinc was 468,700 tons, and the actual production was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production for March was 490,200 tons [13]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On March 20, the processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most domestic regions was between 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 20 dollars/1,000 tons [15]. 3.13 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - On March 20, in the SHFE, for zinc futures trading, the total trading volume of 20 members was 248,540 lots, with an increase of 63,238 lots. The total long - position volume was 71,307 lots, with an increase of 544 lots, and the total short - position volume was 74,028 lots, with an increase of 4,293 lots [16].