大越期货纯碱早报-20260323

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash shows a downward trend as enterprise maintenance begins, but the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history, which is bearish. The basis indicates that the futures price is higher than the spot price, and the inventory is above the five - year average, also bearish. The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, bearish. In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly due to cost - side support [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply is decreasing with enterprise maintenance, but overall supply is expected to be abundant. Downstream float and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume is declining, and plant inventory is at a historical high in the same period, bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1202 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 12 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 185.38 tons, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average, bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to cost - side support, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely to Rise: Downstream float glass has few cold repairs and stable production. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts market bullish sentiment [4]. - Likely to Fall: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the output is expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1217 | 1220 | - 1.23% | | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | 1205 | 1190 | - 1.24% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | -12 | -12 | 0.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.30 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production method is 227.5 yuan/ton [14]. 3.6 Soda Ash开工率、产能产量 - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 81.81 tons, including 43.40 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, at a historical high [19]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Sales Rate: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 101.92% [22]. - Soda Ash Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.58 tons, and the operating rate is 70.41% [25]. - Photovoltaic Glass: Not detailed in the report 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 185.38 tons, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [30]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]