大越期货油脂早报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8840, the basis is 212, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9740, the basis is 22, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 424, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Unlikely: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]