大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoints: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - Strategies: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel Ore: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - Nickel Iron: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price and Freight: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - Inventory: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - Imports: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - Production: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - Imports and Exports: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Price: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - Production: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - Imports: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - Inventory: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - Production: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - Imports and Exports: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - Inventory: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales Volume: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - Power Battery: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - Fundamental Viewpoints: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - Trading Strategies: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]