大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices trended weakly due to the war, a stronger US dollar, and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The price of nickel ore continued to rise, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai nickel 2605 will oscillate weakly [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2605 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures prices: On March 20, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,160, up 1,610 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 16,885, down 180; the price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,065, up 210. The nickel index was 133,700, up 400, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,599, up 92 [10]. - Spot prices: On March 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,900, up 3,000; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,200, up 2,900; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,500, up 3,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,100, up 3,100. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Hangzhou increased by 100 [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 283,512, a decrease of 258; nickel warehouse receipts were 56,690, a decrease of 209; the total inventory was 340,202, a decrease of 467 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons month - on - month. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 40,838, unchanged [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 20, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The high - nickel price per nickel point was 1,087.08 yuan, a decrease of 2.53, and the low - nickel price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,151, the scrap steel production cost was 13,968, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,803 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 131,768 yuan per ton [27].