大越期货生猪期货早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease as the secondary fattening period of pigs in southern China ends and the demand for cured meat and sausages also finishes. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but pork consumption has entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and short - term overall consumption is still not optimistic. The pig price is expected to enter a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The report also suggests paying attention to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamic changes at the bottom of the futures market when the spot price runs weakly after the release of the secondary fattening market. The expected price range for LH2605 is 10,000 - 10,400 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Daily Tips - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The expected price range for LH2605 is 10,000 - 10,400 [10]. Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak season, and the end of secondary fattening in the south has led to a decrease in pig supply. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The pig price may bottom out and then return to a volatile pattern. The pig farming profit has been in a small - scale loss recently, and the short - term enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased, suppressing the short - term pig futures and spot price expectations [12]. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - to - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range. - Bearish factors: The domestic pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. Fundamental Data - Supply - side Indicators: - As of December 31, the pig inventory was 429.67 million, with a monthly - on - monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, with a monthly - on - monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [10][28]. - Demand - side Indicators: - The annual pork consumption has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery of pork consumption preference due to price advantages [62]. Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [10].