大越期货豆粕早报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For Bean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The market is currently in a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, influenced by factors such as the movement of US soybeans, the potential of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the situation in the Middle East. The decrease in oil - mill bean meal inventory and the price above the 20 - day moving average are positive factors, while the reduction of long - position by the main players and capital outflow are negative factors [9]. - For Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate between 4740 and 4840. The market is in a high - level oscillating state, affected by US soybean trends, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the situation in the Middle East. The positive factors include the spot price premium over futures and the price above the 20 - day moving average, while the increase in main short - positions, capital outflow, and potential new - season domestic soybean production increase are negative factors [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US market is in a slightly bullish oscillating state, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remains relatively high in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and bean meal has returned to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profit leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, and the demand for bean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation. The influence of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal interact [13]. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains relatively high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Bean meal is in a slightly bullish oscillating state in the short term, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains relatively high in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - Bearish Factors: Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From March 12 to March 20, the transaction average price of bean meal fluctuated between 3368 and 3420, and the transaction volume ranged from 9.75 to 29.04 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 and 2620, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with only a small amount on a few days. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal ranged from 800 to 956 [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From March 13 to March 20, the futures prices of soybeans (both bean one and bean two) and bean meal fluctuated. The spot price of bean one remained at 4840, and the spot price of bean meal was mostly 3300 [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From March 11 to March 20, the bean one warehouse receipts decreased from 24618 to 22047, the bean two warehouse receipts were mostly 200 - 300, and the bean meal warehouse receipts decreased from 36982 to 36685 [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. over the years. For example, in the global balance sheet, the production has been increasing in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 17.97% and 23.05%. In the domestic balance sheet, the import volume has been relatively large, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil in different years are provided. For example, in the 2024/25 season, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvest progress reached 76.4% on March 23 [34][35][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other indicators of US soybeans. For example, the production in January 2026 was 42.62 billion bushels [44]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content