豆粕带动，菜粕震荡回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a short - term volatile and slightly strong pattern, affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the seasonal demand situation. In the medium - term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [8]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the arrival expectations of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, driven by soybean meal and technical shock adjustment. After China cancels the restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the short - term negative news is exhausted, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict is short - term positive. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is still in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation for rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival, the market is short - term strong and volatile, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the seasonal off - season, the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the short - term low demand suppresses the market expectation. The export of Canadian rapeseed to China has returned to normal, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed in China is gradually increasing [10]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relationship has improved in the short term, the tariffs imposed by both sides are gradually cancelled, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed has resumed. The future development of the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be further clarified [10]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. The Middle East tension has further escalated, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival; No pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is in the short - term off - season; The improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the upcoming resumption of China's import of Canadian rapeseed [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the arrival expectations of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The import of rapeseed has increased since March, and the import cost has fluctuated slightly [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume and startup rate are flat and remain at a low level. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not detailed in the report. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp and crabs is also mentioned, but specific data analysis is not provided [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, affected by soybean meal and technical shock adjustment. The short - term negative news of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations is exhausted, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict is short - term positive. The spot demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is short - term strong and volatile [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2440, the basis is 17, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of rapeseed meal is 39.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.55% compared with last week's 41.74 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.02% compared with 48.6 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [8]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [8]. - Main position: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: Affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal has bottomed out and rebounded. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the supply - demand off - season, it will maintain a volatile pattern after the overall negative news is digested. Pay attention to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - Trading strategies: - Futures: In the short - term, it is in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. For the RM2605 contract, it fluctuates between 2400 and 2600 in the short - term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the negative news is exhausted. It is short - term driven by soybean meal to fluctuate and decline. Future attention should be paid to the arrival of Canadian rapeseed [43]. - The KDJ indicator fluctuates and declines at a high level. The short - term market enters a technical adjustment stage. The indicator at a medium - low level limits the further callback space. Whether it will continue to decline or rise needs further observation [43]. - The MACD fluctuates and declines at a high level, with short - term technical adjustment and the narrowing of the red energy. The future trend needs the guidance of the Canadian rapeseed import policy [43]. - The indicators show that rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines in the short - term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium - term, mainly affected by policy changes and the short - term soybean meal trend. The later trend needs further guidance from the policy and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas; The export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand; The arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; The rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].