大越期货燃料油早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite an increase in imports at the Singapore port, the commercial inventory of heavy fuel oil in Singapore has dropped to a two - week low. Due to reduced arbitrage economics and the tense Middle East situation, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore is expected to further decline in March and April [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor. The market structure of Asian high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened after reaching a milestone high since the Middle East war, but supply shortages will support spot premiums and refining profits in the short term. The deteriorating Middle East situation over the weekend will support oil prices, and fuel oil is strongly supported. FU2605 is expected to run strongly in the range of 4800 - 5100, and LU2605 in the range of 5700 - 5900 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The price of the FU main contract futures decreased from 4969 to 4774, a decrease of 195 or 3.92%. The price of the LU main contract futures decreased from 6097 to 5777, a decrease of 320 or 5.25%. The FU basis decreased from 451 to 414, a decrease of 37.17 or 8.24%. The LU basis decreased from 1108 to 902, a decrease of 206 or 19% [5]. - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased from 1053.00 to 979.00, a decrease of 74.00 or 7.03%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased from 1050.00 to 990.00, a decrease of 60.00 or 5.71%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel decreased from 781.66 to 736.63, a decrease of 45.03 or 5.76%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased from 1045.50 to 928.29, a decrease of 117.21 or 11.21%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel decreased from 708.42 to 663.53, a decrease of 44.89 or 6.34%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 1442.03 to 1627.77, an increase of 185.75 or 12.88% [6]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The tense Middle East situation and poor channel traffic [4]. - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO situation and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The commercial inventory of heavy fuel oil in Singapore has decreased, and the inventory is expected to further decline in March and April. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, with long positions decreasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - A chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread (FU - LU) is provided, with values ranging from - 3000 to 0 [9]. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 18, 2026, was 2486.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels [3][7].