大越期货豆粕周报：中东局势扑朔迷离，豆粕冲高回落-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the Middle - East situation, Sino - US trade negotiations, and South American soybean harvest weather. In the short term, soybean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, while soybeans are in a high - level volatile pattern [10][11]. - The supply and demand of soybeans and soybean meal are complex. The supply is influenced by factors such as import volume, oil - mill inventory, and production, while the demand is affected by the situation of the pig - breeding industry [59]. - The future trends of soybean and soybean meal prices depend on factors such as South American soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade agreement implementation, and Chinese soybean imports [73]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips - No relevant information provided 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of Chinese soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is short - term bullish and volatile, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, Chinese soybean imports, and Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. The weather for soybean planting and growth in South America was relatively normal, and soybean meal returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remained low in March, suppressing the price of soybean meal. The market was affected by both the trend of US soybeans and weak demand for soybean meal [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement. Soybean meal is short - term bullish and volatile, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, the output of South American soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is progressing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement leads to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2016 to 2025 [19]. - USDA's Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: It includes information on planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [20]. - US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024: It details the sowing progress, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate from April 28 to June 30, 2024 [21]. - US Soybean Growth Progress in 2024: It shows the flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and excellent - good rate from June 30 to August 25, 2024 [22]. - US Soybean Growth and Harvest Progress in 2024: It includes the defoliation rate, harvest rate, and excellent - good rate from September 8 to November 10, 2024 [23]. - Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25: It shows the planting rate from November 3, 2024, to January 5, 2025 [24]. - Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress in 2024/25: It details the harvest rate from February 23, 2025, to May 4, 2025 [25]. - Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25: It shows the planting rate from November 13, 2024, to January 15, 2025 [26]. - Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2025/26: It includes the planting rate from November 8, 2025, to January 3, 2026, and the harvest rate from January 10 to February 21, 2026 [27]. - Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2025/26: It shows the planting rate from November 26, 2025, to January 21, 2026 [28]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - US Soybean Market Analysis: The February USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. US soybeans are short - term bullish and volatile due to Chinese purchases and bio - fuel policies, but the good harvest expectation of South American soybeans suppresses the price. The short - term and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement [32]. - Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Imported Soybean Arrival: The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and increased year - on - year [35]. - Oil - Mill Pressing and Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal output in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased slightly, and the short - term stocking demand is good [38][40][42]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The purchase of domestic downstream enterprises remains good, and the提货 volume is at a high level in the same period of history [46]. - Pig - Breeding Inventory: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit loss has expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [48][50][52][54][56]. 3.7 Meal Market Structure - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis: The soybean meal futures have fallen after rising, the spot price is relatively strong, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [61]. - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract is at a relatively high level [63]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - Soybean Technical Analysis: The soybean futures have fallen after rising, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot price. The KDJ and MACD indicators have crossed and fallen at high levels, and the soybean futures are in a high - level volatile pattern, waiting for new guidance [68]. - Soybean Meal Technical Analysis: The soybean meal futures have fallen after rising, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the short - term increase in domestic demand. The KDJ and MACD indicators have crossed and fallen at high levels, and the soybean meal futures are in a relatively strong volatile pattern, waiting for new guidance [71]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - Most Important: The harvest weather and export situation of South American soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of Chinese imported soybeans [73]. - Second - Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [73]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors and conflicts between the US and Iran, and between Russia and Ukraine [73].