大越期货棉花早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report is bullish on cotton in the short - term, suggesting a bullish and volatile trading strategy near the support level. The reasons include positive fundamentals such as expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, good textile exports from January to February, the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations. However, there are also bearish factors like the decline in overall foreign trade orders, inventory increase, and the arrival of new cotton on the market [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ICAC predicts that global cotton consumption in 26/27 will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease by more than 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,649, and the basis is 1434 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory for the 25/26 season in March to be 8.29 million tons [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, the net long position is increasing, but the main trend is not clear [4]. - Expectation: Textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Zhengzhou cotton had a callback in the intraday session and found support near 15,000. In the short - term, a bullish and volatile trading strategy is recommended near the support level [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory among different countries [10][11]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the trade volume is 9.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the yield per unit area is 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - China's Cotton Data: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.