大越期货原油早报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the war between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to intensify, providing strong support for oil prices. In the medium to long term, the increasing passive production cuts in the Middle East and the poor navigation situation provide upward support for prices. It is recommended to operate in the range of 790 - 810 for SC2605 and take a long - term wait - and - see approach [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate. Iraq's southern port has stopped oil exports, and the daily output of Basra Oil Company has dropped from 3.3 million barrels to 900,000 barrels [3]. - Basis: On March 20, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $158.9 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $104.27 per barrel. The basis was 24.37 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 944,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory as of March 20 was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of March 17, the main position of WTI crude oil is long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil is long, with an increase in long positions [3]. - Expectation: The Trump administration has started preliminary consultations on the next - stage arrangements and possible peace negotiations with Iran. However, the war intensity remains high, providing short - term support for prices. The increasing passive production cuts in the Middle East and the poor navigation situation provide medium - to - long - term upward support. It is recommended to operate in the range of 790 - 810 for SC2605 and take a long - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 2. Recent News - Diplomatic Negotiations: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved in potential diplomatic negotiations. Any agreement to end the war must include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, resolving Iran's high - enriched uranium reserve issue, and reaching long - term agreements on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for regional proxy forces. Egypt, Qatar, and the UK are transmitting information between the two countries. Iran has set six strategic conditions to stop the war, and a cease - fire is not expected soon [5]. - Oil Release: The Trump administration has lent 45.2 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve to oil companies and issued a 30 - day sanctions waiver for purchasing Iranian oil at sea to ease the energy supply pressure [5]. - Fed's Stance: Fed Governor Waller believes that the risk of persistent inflation has increased, supporting keeping interest rates unchanged. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman believes it is too early to judge the long - term impact on the US economy. Short - term interest rate contract traders are starting to price in a December interest rate hike [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Difficulties in strait passage and the deterioration of the Middle East situation [6]. - Bearish Factors: Sanctioned oil returning to the market, Trump's intention to end the war quickly, and the release of strategic reserves by IEA member countries [6]. - Market Driver: In the short term, continue to focus on geopolitical situation changes; in the medium to long term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for a reversal [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $103.78 to $106.41, an increase of 2.53%; WTI crude oil increased from $95.55 to $98.23, an increase of 2.80%; SC crude oil decreased from 803.4 to 776.4, a decrease of 3.36%; Oman crude oil decreased from $166.96 to $157.94, a decrease of 5.40% [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased by 0.35%, WTI increased by 2.17%, Oman crude oil decreased by 4.82%, Shengli crude oil decreased by 2.52%, and Dubai crude oil decreased by 4.82% [9]. - API Inventory: As of March 13, the API inventory increased by 6.556 million barrels to 472.774 million barrels [11]. - EIA Inventory: As of March 13, the EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449.259 million barrels [13]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of March 17, the net long position was 218,688, a decrease of 9,327 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of March 17, the net long position was 428,704, an increase of 77,672 [19].