大越期货贵金属早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Middle - East situation and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have led to a decline in gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices have given back their previous gains, and the downward pressure on gold prices has increased. Although there is some support from the photovoltaic sector for silver prices, the decline in gold prices will cause silver prices to widen their decline [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. However, with the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still macro - level support [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: The Middle - East situation escalated, the expectation of interest rate hikes increased, and gold prices continued to fall. US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce. The basis was - 0.72, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 106,845 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The Middle - East situation escalated, the expectation of interest rate hikes increased, and silver prices gave back all of the previous day's gains. US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce. The basis was + 35, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,370 kilograms to 362,495 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net short position changed to a long position [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: Consider the Middle - East situation, the euro - zone confidence index, and US construction spending in January. The expectation of interest rate hikes has increased, inflation concerns are high, and panic has spread. Gold prices have broken through the February low, and the downward pressure has increased. The premium of Shanghai gold has been maintained at 5.5 yuan per gram [4]. - Silver: The expectation of interest rate hikes has increased, and silver prices have given back their previous gains. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to around 1,750 yuan per kilogram. Although the photovoltaic sector has supported silver prices, the decline in gold prices will cause silver prices to widen their decline [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The domestic refined oil product will open a new round of price adjustment window (time to be determined). - At 22:00, US construction spending in January will be released. - At 23:00, the preliminary value of the euro - zone consumer confidence index for March and a speech by European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone will be available. - At 00:00 the next day, a speech by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will be given [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. However, with the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still macro - level support [9]. - Silver: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support silver prices, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game also have an impact [13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.87% to 159,328, the short positions decreased by 0.82% to 43,816, and the net long positions decreased by 3.63% to 115,512 [39]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.84% to 250,241, the short positions decreased by 3.03% to 238,173, and the net long positions increased by 1.22% to 12,068 [42].