大越期货贵金属周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation and oil prices continue to impact precious metal prices. High oil prices drive up inflation concerns and raise interest - rate hike expectations, leading to significant declines in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite has cooled, and financial assets have fallen across the board. Gold and silver are under significant downward pressure, and their prices are positively correlated with risk appetite [10]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Central banks around the world have taken different stances in response to the situation, with some maintaining rates and adjusting their policy outlooks [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - Gold and silver prices dropped significantly: Shanghai Gold Futures (2604) fell 8.97%, COMEX Gold (2604) fell 11.26%, Shanghai Silver Futures (2606) fell 18.69%, and COMEX Silver (2605) fell 16.64%. The US dollar index declined 0.99%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% [4][10]. - The US PPI far exceeded expectations, with the February PPI rising 0.7% month - on - month, far higher than the expected 0.3%, and 3.4% year - on - year, while the core PPI reached a one - year high of 3.9%, further compressing the Fed's room for interest - rate cuts this year [11]. - The Middle East situation remained tense. The South Pars Gas Field in Iran and some petrochemical facilities in Assaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel. Qatar reported that the Iranian attacks damaged 17% of LNG production capacity. Oil prices fluctuated significantly [10][13]. 3.2 Weekly Review - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision and advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed raised GDP and inflation expectations for this year and the next [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but warned about the impact of oil price hikes on inflation. The European Central Bank maintained rates at 2% for the sixth consecutive time, with a tougher policy stance. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, removed the "rate - cut" wording, and signaled a possible rate hike [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The gold - to - silver ratio declined again, with the domestic gold - to - silver ratio returning to 59.98 [15]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield fell below 4% [21]. 3.4 Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net long position continued to decrease, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases. For Shanghai Silver, the net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [10]. - As of March 17, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions rising. The CFTC net long position in silver decreased, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases [10][27]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and the silver ETF holdings also decreased significantly [30][32]. - Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase, while COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX Silver inventory continued to decline [34][36]. 3.5 Summary - High oil prices drive up interest - rate hike expectations, putting significant downward pressure on gold and silver, especially with the low risk appetite, the pressure on gold and silver continues to increase [10].