大越期货棉花周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices fluctuated and declined. After the previous positive factors were exhausted, the market adjusted temporarily, with support around 15,000. The 1 - 2 month textile exports were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Zheng cotton pulled back during the session and found support around 15,000. In the short term, with a bullish and oscillating mindset, rely on the support level [4]. - Bullish factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak seasons [5]. - Bearish factors include a general decline in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated and declined. After the previous positive factors were exhausted, the market adjusted temporarily, with support around 15,000. ICAC predicts that global consumption in 26/27 will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area will be regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Customs data shows that from January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 season data shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - No information about daily tips is provided in the given content. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information about today's focus is provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are specific production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data for various countries [10][11]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is expected to be 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the global cotton trade volume is expected to be 9.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the yield per unit area is expected to be 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is expected to be 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No information about position data is provided in the given content.