大越期货白糖周报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices slightly pulled back and then continued to rise. With the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the international raw sugar price index rose, and sugar prices generally maintained a volatile and upward - trending pattern [4]. - In the 26/27 sugar - making season, there is a projected sugar shortage of 268,000 tons. For the 25/26 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 122,000 tons, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons. In the 26/27 season, the global sugar surplus is expected to shrink to 140,000 tons, lower than the 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season [4]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou sugar prices trended upward. The K - line crossed above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of a right - side market. With the upcoming domestic consumption peak season, rising crude oil prices, and increasing sugar - based ethanol prices, sugar prices are indirectly supported. Sugar prices move forward three steps and back two, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The strategy is to go long on short - term dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices slightly pulled back and then continued to rise. With the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the international raw sugar price index rose, and sugar prices generally maintained a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Zhengzhou sugar prices trended upward after the Spring Festival, with the K - line crossing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages beginning to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of a right - side market [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Likely Positive Factors: In the 26/27 season, Brazilian sugar production may decline; syrup tariffs have increased; the formula of American cola has been changed to use sucrose; crude oil prices have risen [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Global sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar - making seasons. For example, ISO predicts a 122,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons; Datagro predicts a 268,000 - ton shortage in the 26/27 season [4]. - Domestic Production and Sales: As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09% [4]. - Import Data: From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Sugar - related Crop Data: Information on sugar - crop planting area, yield per unit area, and sugar production from 2024/25 to 2025/26, including data on sugarcane and beet, is provided. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar - crop planting area is 1.439 million hectares, and the sugar production is 11.7 million tons [31]. - Price Data: The international and domestic sugar prices from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented. The international sugar price in 2025/26 is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [31]. - Import Cost: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from December 2025 to March 2026 is given. For example, on March 11, 2026, with an ICE raw sugar closing price of 14.22 cents per pound and a RMB exchange rate of 6.8749, the in - quota cost is 4,015 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,100 yuan per ton [35]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided