大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed an increase last week, with a production of 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side saw an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises. The cost - side had different profit situations for different raw materials. The overall inventory was slightly reduced, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations caused by news [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 147,976 yuan/ton, a 1.85% daily decrease, with a loss of 911 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 137,582 yuan/ton, a 2.45% daily decrease, with a profit of 6,321 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On March 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease. The overall inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average. The demand - leading situation weakened, and lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 139,100 - 149,780 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 73.46%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 147,976 yuan/ton, a 1.86% decrease from the previous day. The monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene was 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.72% decrease from the previous month. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% decrease from the previous month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 438,336 tons, a 31.07% decrease from the previous month [17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron was 60%, an 8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The monthly production was 300,250 tons, a 7.67% decrease from the previous month. The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron lithium was 45%, a 4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The monthly production was 78,650 tons, an 8.98% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 26,300 GWh, a 37.38% decrease from the previous month [17].