工业硅期货早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply is stable, demand is increasing slightly, and the cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8365 - 8545. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main risks are the impact of production cut/overhaul plans, and the trends of polysilicon inventory reduction and resumption of production [6][7][8] - For polysilicon, the supply production plan is increasing, the demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support is weakening. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 36815 - 38715 [12][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week. The demand has increased. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, the silicon wafer is in a loss state, the battery cell is profitable, and the component is profitable. The silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive operating rate is 68.6%, remaining flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, the import loss is 2,421 yuan/ton, the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi is 750.88 yuan/ton, and the regenerative aluminum operating rate is 59.5%, a 1.19% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level [7] - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [7] - Basis: On March 20th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 645 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10] - Inventory: The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase; the main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase [10] - Disk: The MA20 line is upward, and the price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 line [10] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [8] - Expectation: The supply production plan has increased but remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8365 - 8545 [8] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The production plan for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [12] - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease. Currently, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production plan for March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease. Last week, the inventory of the battery cell external sales factory was 5.82GW, a 16.61% decrease. Currently, the production is profitable. The production plan for March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease. The expected component production for March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase. Currently, the component production is profitable [12] - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,670 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 1,330 yuan/ton [13] - Basis: On March 20th, the price of N - type dense material was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,735 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [14] - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [18] - Disk: The MA20 line is downward, and the price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 line [18] - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [18] - Expectation: The supply production plan continues to increase. The silicon wafer production in the demand side increases in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The battery cell production increases in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The component production increases in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support has weakened. The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 36815 - 38715 [15] 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have different degrees of increase, with the 05 contract increasing by 2.05% [24] - Spot prices of different types of industrial silicon remain unchanged [24] - Inventory: The weekly social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase; the main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase [24] - Production: The weekly sample enterprise production is 40,290 tons, a 1.59% decrease [24] - Cost and profit: The cost of organic silicon DMC remains unchanged, and the profit is 2,503 yuan/ton [24] 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have different degrees of increase and decrease [25] - Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain mostly unchanged [25] - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease; the photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory is 5.82GW, a 16.62% decrease; the total weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease [25] - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the photovoltaic battery monthly production is 37.09GW, a 10.50% decrease; the component monthly production is 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease [25] 3.3 Industrial Silicon Downstream 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Price and production: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate remains unchanged, the weekly production has increased, and the price remains unchanged. The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 remain unchanged [53][55][56][57] - Import and export and inventory: The DMC monthly export and import volumes show different trends, and the inventory has increased [60][62] 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price has decreased, the import ADC12 cost has decreased, and the profit has decreased [65] - Inventory and production: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and regenerative aluminum alloy ingots has decreased, the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has decreased, and the operating rates of primary and regenerative aluminum alloys have different trends [68] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles show different trends, and the export of aluminum alloy wheels is also in a changing state [71] 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Cost and price: The polysilicon industry cost shows a certain trend, and the prices of N - type dense material and N - type re -投料 have changed [75] - Inventory and production: The total inventory of polysilicon has decreased, the monthly production has increased, the monthly operating rate has changed, and the monthly demand has also changed [75] - Supply and demand balance: The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows different situations in different months [78] - Silicon wafer: The price, weekly production, weekly inventory, and monthly demand of silicon wafers have different trends, and the net exports of single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers have also changed [81] - Battery cell: The prices of different types of battery cells have changed, the production and inventory of battery cells have different trends, the operating rate has changed, and the export has increased [84] - Photovoltaic component: The prices of different types of components have remained unchanged, the domestic and European inventories, monthly production, and export of components have different trends [87] - Photovoltaic accessories: The prices of photovoltaic coating, high - purity quartz sand, etc. have changed, and the import and export volumes of photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and welding tape have also changed [90] - Component cost and profit: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost and profit, battery cell cost and profit, and component cost and profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components have different trends [92] - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: The new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations, and solar power generation of the whole country have different trends [94]