大越期货甲醇周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Multiple positive factors are driving the short - term methanol market to maintain a strong trend. Inland, high profits have led to high domestic methanol production, but the increase in olefin demand and the sharp rise of futures have boosted market buying sentiment, accelerating the inventory reduction of upstream methanol. Meanwhile, the expected tightening of imports has led to a rapid decline in port inventories. Traders are optimistic about the future, and downstream buyers are willing to follow high - priced goods, so the inland methanol price is expected to remain firm. In the port area, although imports are shrinking, the inflow of inland goods has slowed down the decline in port inventories. If the MTO plants in Jiangsu restart and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, the port market is expected to remain strong next week. Currently, methanol has become the leader in the chemical market, and future attention should be paid to whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Weekly Review - Multiple positive factors are driving the short - term methanol market to maintain strong operation. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and MTO profits [5]. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From March 13th to March 20th, the prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu increased by 7.96%, from 2,825 yuan/ton to 3,050 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 4.27%, from 2,340 yuan/ton to 2,440 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.18%, from 2,160 yuan/ton to 2,315 yuan/ton; the price in Fujian increased by 6.84%, from 2,850 yuan/ton to 3,045 yuan/ton [6]. Methanol Basis - From March 13th to March 20th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 7.96%, from 2,825 yuan/ton to 3,050 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 11.66%, from 2,805 yuan/ton to 3,132 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 20 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton [8]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From March 13th to March 20th, the coal - to - methanol profit increased by 110 yuan/ton, reaching 455 yuan/ton; the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 512 yuan/ton, reaching 601 yuan/ton [10]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - This week, the national methanol load was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week's 78.71%. The methanol load in the northwest region was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week's 85.09% [12]. Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From March 13th to March 20th, the CFR China price increased by 0.26%, from 381 US dollars/ton to 382 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 8.80%, from 511.5 US dollars/ton to 556.5 US dollars/ton. The spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened from - 130.5 US dollars/ton to - 174.5 US dollars/ton [15]. Methanol Import Spreads - From March 13th to March 20th, the domestic methanol spot price increased by 7.96%, and the import cost increased by 0.10%. The import spread increased from - 391 yuan/ton to - 169 yuan/ton [17]. Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol - From March 13th to March 20th, the price of formaldehyde remained unchanged at 1,070 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/ton; the price of acetic acid increased by 3.13%, from 3,200 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [22]. Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit was - 276 yuan/ton, and the load was 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% compared with last week [24]. - Dimethyl Ether: The production profit was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the load was 9.79%, an increase of 1.45% compared with last week [26]. - Acetic Acid: The production profit was 423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the load was 72.32%, a decrease of 1.29% compared with last week [31]. MTO Production Profits and Loads - The MTO production profit was - 3,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the MTO/MTP device load was 84.18%, a decrease of 2.27% compared with last week [35]. Methanol Port Inventories - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 54.8 to 51.07; in the South China port, the inventory decreased from 33.26 to 31.6 [36]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From March 13th to March 20th, the number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,513 to 7,641, a decrease of 33.63%, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged at 147 [41]. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Methanol Device Overhaul - Multiple domestic methanol enterprises are in the process of overhaul, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different overhaul start and end times, raw materials, and annual production capacities [43]. Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in different countries have different operation conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while some enterprises in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [44]. Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operation conditions. Some devices are operating stably, some are in the process of overhaul, and some are expected to be put into production [45].