大越期货甲醇早报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3060 - 3350 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are positive in the short - term. The base - difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has decreased, which is bearish. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3060 - 3350 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin. - The methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink. - The methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced their inventories, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales. - Some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde gradually stop production for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials. - The main olefin devices at the port have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly. - Most downstream users have completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and the phased demand has weakened [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 687 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions showed different changes. For example, the price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased from 3145 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 3182 yuan/ton to 3132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [8]. - The weekly changes in domestic methanol spot prices showed that the prices in Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian increased by 7.96%, 4.27%, 7.18%, and 6.84% respectively, while the price in Shandong remained unchanged [9]. - The weekly changes in methanol futures prices increased by 11.66%, and the basis changed from - 37 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3.2 Production Profit Data - The weekly profit of coal - based methanol production increased from 345 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remained at - 40 yuan/ton. The profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol production decreased from 643 yuan/ton to 601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton [21]. 3.3.3 Production Capacity Utilization Data - The national weighted average production capacity utilization rate of methanol decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points. The production capacity utilization rate in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55 percentage points [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 82.67 tons, a decrease of 5.39 tons compared with the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons [5]. - The inventory in the East China port decreased from 54.80 tons to 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons, and the inventory in the South China port decreased from 33.26 tons to 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons [8]. 3.3.5 External Market Price and Spread Data - The CFR price of methanol in China decreased from 411 US dollars/ton to 382 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The CFR price of methanol in Southeast Asia increased from 552 US dollars/ton to 557 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The spread between China and Southeast Asia decreased from - 141 US dollars/ton to - 175 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 34 US dollars/ton [8]. - The import cost of methanol decreased from 3459 yuan/ton to 3219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 241 yuan/ton. The import spread decreased from 277 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 191 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged, while the price of acetic acid increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13% [29]. - The production profit of formaldehyde decreased from - 231 yuan/ton to - 276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased from 227 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. The production profit of acetic acid decreased from 446 yuan/ton to 423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [33][36][41]. - The production profit of MTO decreased from - 3040 yuan/ton to - 3760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [46]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. 3.4.2 Overseas Device Operation - The operation status of overseas methanol production devices varies. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low level [56]. 3.4.3 Olefin Device Operation - The operation status of domestic olefin devices also varies. Some devices are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have low loads [57].