国投证券(香港)港股晨报-20260323

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a surge in oil prices and concerns over global economic stagnation and inflation [2][4] - The 10-year bond yields in various countries have increased, with the US at 4.4%, while China's 10-year bond yield remains relatively low at around 1.83%, benefiting from stable monetary policy and low domestic inflation [2][7] - The report indicates that the geopolitical conflict may evolve into a prolonged standoff, increasing market volatility and affecting inflation and corporate costs, which could lead central banks to maintain tight monetary policies [11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook shows rising inflation concerns, with the US Federal Reserve raising its core inflation forecast to 2.7% while increasing GDP growth expectations to 2.4% for 2026 [8] - The European Central Bank has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.9% for 2026, while raising inflation expectations from 1.9% to 2.6% due to rising oil and gas prices [9] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy normalization, acknowledging the economic pressures from high oil prices and geopolitical tensions [10]