《有色》日报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. The short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed before the market risk preference significantly recovers. Pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran conflict and the de - stocking situation in the peak season, with the main focus on the pressure around 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Zinc: In the short term, zinc prices are under pressure due to supply improvement, high inventory, and limited macro - level positives. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand fundamentals are generally stable, and the space for further significant decline may be limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support around 22,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Tin: The short - term tin price is expected to be weakly volatile. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and the short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East situation [6]. - Nickel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the market, but the raw material end contradictions support the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - level sentiment suppresses the non - ferrous sector, while the raw material end is tight and the cost support is strong. The steel mills increase production and the demand gradually recovers. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory adjustment, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Currently, macro - level sentiment dominates, and the disk decline continues to expand. The real - world fundamentals of lithium carbonate have resilience, but the terminal data is weak and lacks further momentum. In the short term, the disk is expected to maintain a weakly wide - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation with macro - level sentiment and geopolitical news. The long - term bullish logic still holds. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point and the impact of the Middle East situation on supply, with the main reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15]. - Aluminum Alloy: In the short term, the high raw material cost strongly supports the ADC12 price, but the demand follows up slowly, and the negative feedback effect of high prices gradually appears. The market is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [17]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - end fluctuations [18]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the lowest cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [20]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,150 yuan/ton, down 3,375 yuan/ton or 3.41% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Guangdong is 80 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, down 31,300 tons or 3.13% month - on - month; the electrolytic copper import volume in December was 0.2602 million tons, down 0.0109 million tons or 4.02% month - on - month [1]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton or 1.64% compared to the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 2,568 yuan/ton, up 205.36 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, down 0.056 million tons or 9.99% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume in December was 0.0088 million tons, down 0.0095 million tons or 51.94% month - on - month [4]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price is 353,400 yuan/ton, down 2,400 yuan/ton or 0.67% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 tin is 2,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton or 50% compared to the previous value [6]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, down 657 tons or 3.69% compared to the previous value; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, down 3,610 tons or 23.91% compared to the previous value [6]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 137,900 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton or 2.22% compared to the previous value; the spot premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 2.96% compared to the previous value [8]. - Supply and Inventory: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, down 2,625 tons or 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 10,723 tons or 84.63% month - on - month [8]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 0.70% compared to the previous value; the futures - spot price difference is 455 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton or 19.47% compared to the previous value [10]. - Fundamental Data: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) is 1.9008 million tons, up 0.5814 million tons or 44.07% month - on - month; the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) is 0.37 million tons, down 0.045 million tons or 10.84% month - on - month [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 149,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.30% compared to the previous value; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 146,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan/ton or 2.34% compared to the previous value [14]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, down 14,810 tons or 15.13% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 13,180 tons or 10.57% month - on - month [14]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan/ton or 1.71% compared to the previous value; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 3,676 yuan/ton, up 396.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [15]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, down 0.785 million tons or 10.63% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.46 million tons, down 0.339 million tons or 8.91% month - on - month [15]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton or 1.20% compared to the previous value; the price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 133.33% compared to the previous value [17]. - Fundamental Data: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.358 million tons, down 0.252 million tons or 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.2093 million tons, down 0.094 million tons or 30.99% month - on - month [17]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous value; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 645 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 20.86% compared to the previous value [18]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production is 275,700 tons, down 99,800 tons or 26.58% compared to the previous value; the national industrial silicon production start - up rate is 38.02%, down 10.31 percentage points or 21.33% compared to the previous value [18]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 43,500 yuan/kg, down 250 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared to the previous value; the N - type material basis (average price) is 5,735 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan/ton or 10.29% compared to the previous value [20]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, down 23,800 tons or 23.61% compared to the previous value; the polysilicon import volume is 0.16 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 54.97% compared to the previous value [20].