瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The I2605 contract's center of gravity moved up on Monday. Considering the macro - situation and supply - demand, with the increase in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and port arrivals, the decline in domestic port inventory, and the increase in blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output, the expected increase in demand still supports the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green column turns red. The view is oscillating upward, with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 819.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the position volume is 441,933 lots, down 8,257 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 32.5 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 of the I contract is - 23,347 lots, down 4,711 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I is 3,400 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 108.3 dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 0.07 dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 756 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 16 yuan, up 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 109.55 dollars/ton, up 1.15 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fine ore is 3.18, up 0.02. The estimated import cost is 870 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,144.30 million tons, up 95.50 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) is 2,383.10 million tons, up 66.10 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,814.18 million tons, down 133.14 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,034.06 million tons, up 104.96 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 million tons, down 1,475.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) is 19 days, down 2 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.85 million tons, up 1.04 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 64.29%, up 1.80%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.13 million tons, up 15.45 million tons. The BDI index is 2,056, down 1. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 30.65 dollars/ton, down 0.08 dollars; from Western Australia to Qingdao is 11.71 dollars/ton, down 0.17 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 79.80%, up 1.44%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.55%, up 2.65%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 13.22%, down 2.78%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.24%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 21.54%, up 1.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 21.64%, up 0.02% [2] Industry News - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,144.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,559.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.0 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,995.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 120.4 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,634.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 563.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,383.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 million tons; at 45 Chinese ports was 2,271.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 million tons; at six northern ports was 1,050.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 million tons [2]