白糖产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the cumulative sugar imports from January to February increased significantly year - on - year, far exceeding market expectations. The General Administration of Customs data shows that from January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar cumulatively, a year - on - year increase of 44 tons or 563.1%. As of now, it's estimated that 19 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - pressing process in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 49 fewer than the same period last year. It's generally expected that there will be a wave of concentrated sugar - pressing completion in late March. However, the sugar import data in January and February far exceeded expectations, putting some pressure on the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,453 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the main contract position was 340,678 lots, down 13,362 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 120,460 lots, down 5,066 lots; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,292 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,228 yuan/ton, up 162 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,446 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,363 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,330 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports were 2.2297 million tons, up 212,200 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,093 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,157 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was - 61 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 22 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume was not provided, and the cumulative import volume was 4.92 million tons, up 580,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 155.06 million tons, up 66.58 million tons; in Yunnan, it was 53.2 million tons, up 25.06 million tons. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi was 4.029 million tons, up 2.0871 million tons; in Yunnan, it was 984,100 tons, up 591,800 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 359,040 tons, up 228,740 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.3421 million tons, up 296,400 tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.69%, up 0.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 11.68%, up 0.43%. The 20 - day historical volatility was 11.37%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 10.23%, down 0.45% [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 207,755 lots, a decrease of 1,000 lots from the previous week. The long position was 192,309 lots, a decrease of 6,055 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 400,064 lots, a decrease of 7,055 lots from the previous week. The Indian government recently approved sugar exports within the quota, but the industry was dissatisfied with the export period. In addition, rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil may delay the start of the 2026/27 annual sugar - cane pressing activity [2]