瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol port inventory continues to decline, and the short - term port methanol inventory is expected to decrease further. Attention should be paid to the impact of changes in提货量 and geopolitical situation on supply expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased last week, and the MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 3351 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 219 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 241 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 592,125 lots, a环比 decrease of 2,261 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,871 lots, a环比 increase of 5,459 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,641, with no change [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 3,230 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 240 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,292.5 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 697.5 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 117.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 121 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 21 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 395 US dollars/ton, a环比 increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 555 US dollars/ton, a环比 increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 433 euros/ton, a环比 increase of 9 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 160 US dollars/ton, a环比 decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a环比 decrease of 0.03 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 94.52 tons, a环比 decrease of 2.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 31.65 tons, a环比 decrease of 2.35 tons. The methanol import profit is - 209.5 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 79.97 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, a环比 increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 485,400 tons, a环比 decrease of 37,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.87%, a环比 increase of 2.72 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.43%, a环比 increase of 4.83 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.49%, a环比 increase of 1.36 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, with no change; the MTBE operating rate is 69.51%, a环比 increase of 0.57 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no change. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1,060 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 117 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 75.8%, a环比 increase of 0.42 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 57.28%, a环比 increase of 0.2 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 74.37%, a环比 decrease of 5.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 74.38%, a环比 decrease of 5.89 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 48.54 tons, a环比 decrease of 3.77 tons, or 7.21%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 27.93 tons, a环比 increase of 1.40 tons, or 5.26%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 126.17 tons, a环比 decrease of 5.11 tons. East and South China ports both saw inventory decreases. The overall methanol production increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.57%, a环比 increase of 3.08%. The restart of the Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [3]