瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The opening rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Semi-steel tire enterprises were concentrated on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, the capacity utilization rate remained at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. Driven by price increase news, enterprises' shipments were concentrated, and the shortage phenomenon was obvious, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises aimed to complete quarterly tasks, and with unfulfilled pre-price increase orders, the opening rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,900 - 13,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,145 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 rubber was 13,055 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 rubber was -100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 rubber was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 116,891 lots, up 391 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 rubber was 58,703 lots, down 235 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -38,132 lots, down 3,126 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 rubber was -9,541 lots, down 390 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 125,440 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 rubber in the exchange were 45,763 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state-owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,955 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,950 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,030 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis-butadiene BR9000 was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -145 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non-standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was -920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The price of 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,366 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 rubber was 311 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 73.9 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 70 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 74.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -32 US dollars/ton, down 19 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all-steel tires was 70.72%, up 0.5 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi-steel tires was 78.25%, up 0.54 percentage points. The inventory days of all-steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.09 days, down 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi-steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.59 days, up 0.75 days. The monthly output of all-steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi-steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.12%, up 0.12 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.09%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 28.37%, down 1.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 28.37%, down 1.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy truck industry in February 2026 both year-on-year and month-on-month was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival month. As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a 0.8 - ton increase from the previous period, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]