瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Downstream steel inventory has shown an inflection point, demand has recovered, and geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices, strengthening the substitution of coal chemical industry [2]. - The coke futures price may fluctuate upward. Coke enterprises' profits are at the break - even point, which may suppress production, but downstream demand has an expectation of recovery, and the short - term cost has been rising [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1289.50 yuan/ton, up 118.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1847.00 yuan/ton, up 106.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 688976.00 hands, up 98117.00 hands; J futures contract holding volume: 49301.00 hands, up 8393.00 hands [2]. - Net holding of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 47200.00 hands, up 13689.00 hands; Net holding of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5365.00 hands, down 1817.00 hands [2]. - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread: 89.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan; J 9 - 5 month contract spread: 68.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; Coke warehouse receipts: 1060.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis: 60.50 yuan/ton, down 118.50 yuan; J main contract basis: - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 106.50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimeng 5 raw coal: 1114.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; Tangshan first - class metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot: 167.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal: 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal: 1600.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal: 1406.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 24.31 million tons, up 1.21 million tons; The refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 332.51 million tons, up 18.91 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 33.01%, up 2.01%; Raw coal output: 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3094.00 million tons, down 1534.00 million tons; The inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports: 481.03 million tons, down 8.15 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1005.03 million tons, up 35.60 million tons; The total inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 94.23 million tons, down 6.20 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills in the country: 773.93 million tons, down 3.70 million tons; The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills in the country: 688.18 million tons, up 0.63 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.30 days, down 0.14 days; The available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills: 12.74 days, down 0.43 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 806.97 million tons, down 368.74 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 59.00 million tons, down 25.00 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal supply: 5478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 74.31%, up 0.40% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants: 38.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; Coke output: 0.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills in the country: 79.78%, up 1.44%; The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 85.53%, up 2.61% [2]. - Crude steel output: 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On March 20, some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of price increase for coke. The price of wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on March 23 [2]. - On March 21, US President Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's speaker responded that if Iran's infrastructure was attacked, the energy and oil facilities in the Middle East would be targeted, and oil prices would rise in the long - term [2]. - On March 23, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened, and it was expected to achieve a "five - consecutive increase" and set a new high for the year [2].