瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The corn futures price is oscillating strongly at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended. In the international market, the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran keeps international oil prices oscillating at a high level, pushing up freight rates and boosting international corn prices, which is also beneficial to the domestic market. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, as the corn purchase price rises, the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell increases, the supply of high - moisture grain is rising, and the price increase is under pressure. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the overall grain supply is increasing, and many enterprises have lowered the purchase price. The increase in the supply of state - supported wheat and the decline in its price enhance the substitution effect of wheat, diverting the demand for feed - use corn to some extent [2]. Corn Starch - The corn starch industry's operating rate is gradually increasing, but the supply - side pressure increase is relatively slow. The downstream demand has improved, the downstream pick - up volume has increased, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market has maintained a relatively strong oscillation recently [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2415 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 13 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 1379169 lots, up 62462 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 233760 lots, down 37603 lots; the number of registered warrants is 69303 lots, unchanged. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2805 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the monthly spread (5 - 7) is 32 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 295015 lots, up 10279 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26094 lots, down 10885 lots; the number of registered warrants is 4725 lots, down 160 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 363 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 466.25 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents; the total position is 1773499 contracts, up 50191 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 312342 contracts, up 54561 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2453.04 yuan/ton, down 1.57 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2143.14 yuan/ton, up 7.3 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 38.04 yuan/ton, down 29.57 yuan. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Weifang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Shijiazhuang is 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 496 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 835 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 1 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production Forecast: The predicted annual production of corn in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine is 29 million tons, unchanged. - Sown Area Forecast: The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 44.7 tons, down 24.9 tons; at northern ports is 247 tons, up 28 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 376.9 tons, up 39.2 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 120.3 tons, down 0.6 tons. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed Production: The monthly feed production volume is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 30.27 days, up 0.21 days; the deep - processing corn consumption volume is 134.14 tons, up 7.28 tons. - Processing Profit: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 14 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Hebei is 131 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jilin is 40 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 58.76%, up 3.15%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 58.8%, up 3.07% [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.53%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.7%, up 0.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.7%, up 0.42% [2]. Industry News - As of March 14, the harvesting progress of Brazil's first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 34.0%, compared with 29.5% last week, 40.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 33.1%. - Brazil's CONAB expects the total corn production in the 2025/26 season to reach 138.27 million tons, lower than last month's expectation of 138.45 million tons and a 2.0% decrease from the previous year (last month's forecast was a 1.9% decrease) [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]