瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 132,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,6885 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 180 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 179,706 lots, an increase of 6,570 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 52,192 lots, a decrease of 6,410 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 283,512 tons, a decrease of 258 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,661 tons (weekly), a decrease of 20 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 18,360 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,632 tons, an increase of 942 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 137,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 137,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 4,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 182.99 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.46 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3467 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7.9266 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 0.6568 million tons [2] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,200 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones and increase direct and inclusive policies for consumers [2] - Trump threatened to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and destroy its power plants. Sources said the US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves" [2] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend; Indonesia's RKAB plan is to adjust the quota, with an increase of up to about 25% - 30%, which is expected to meet domestic nickel ore demand and ease supply concerns [2] - The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. Recently, the nickel price has been adjusted in a shock, and there is a profit margin in production. It is expected that the output of refined nickel will rise again [2] - The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and production has gradually resumed after the festival; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [2] - The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the spot premium remains stable; the overseas LME inventory decreases slightly, and the spot premium is adjusted downward [2] - Technically, the position increases while the price is adjusted, and the divergence between long and short positions increases [2]