每日商品期市纵览-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to price fluctuations in various commodities [1][2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, while medium - to long - term trends depend on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic conditions [11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Stock Index: Affected by external disturbances and low market sentiment, the stock index has been continuously adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short - term, and it is relatively strong in the medium - to long - term [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Inflation concerns caused by the Middle East situation and high oil prices suppress long - term bond trends, while short - term bonds benefit from stable capital. If the stock market decline expands, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion sentiment [2]. Container Shipping on European Routes The market has entered a high - level wide - range shock. The core logic has shifted from trading geopolitical conflicts to weighing risk premiums and the reality of the off - season. Near - month contracts are subject to repeated games between events and spot markets, and far - month contracts price in long - term conflicts, with high volatility risks [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, leading to inflation concerns. The shift in monetary policy expectations suppresses platinum and palladium prices. There are short - term price fluctuations [4]. - Gold and Silver: Reversal of the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations, rising US dollar index and real interest rates of US bonds, and the escalation of Middle East conflicts have put pressure on gold and silver prices. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short - term [5]. - Copper: Tightening macro - expectations and weak industrial reality have caused copper prices to break through key ranges. In the short - term, the price remains weak, and in the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to marginal changes in macro - expectations and industrial supply - demand [5]. - Aluminum: Geopolitical factors initially pushed up prices, but then concerns about economic recession and liquidity tightening, along with a significant cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, have made aluminum prices fluctuate weakly. There is a possibility of price increases if raw material shortages lead to more production cuts [6]. - Alumina: Domestic production capacity has declined, narrowing the oversupply situation, but new production capacity in Guangxi has brought supply pressure. Overseas, geopolitical factors in the Middle East have affected orders, and shipping costs have risen. The fundamentals are mixed, and cost and policy expectations provide phased support [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It strongly follows the price of Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below due to raw material shortages and the impact of tax refund policies [7]. - Zinc: The price is at the lower end of the range, with some support from downstream purchases. The supply pressure from domestic smelting is increasing, and the demand recovery is delayed. In the short - term, it runs weakly [7]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Fluctuate following macro - guidance. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict have put pressure on prices. The fundamentals are in a more intense game, and attention should be paid to demand release and Indonesian policies [8]. - Tin: Suppressed by both macro - panic sentiment and fundamentals. In the short - term, there is no obvious turning point, and in the medium - to long - term, the price center moves upward [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Polysilicon has entered a loss - making range. The current is the bottom of the production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to production - capacity clearance and supply - demand optimization [10]. - Lead: The price fluctuates and adjusts. The supply side brings upward pressure, and the demand side recovers slowly. The price oscillates within a range [10]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran have pushed up oil and coking coal prices, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils form upward pressure. The short - term rebound height is limited [11]. - Iron Ore: The price is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The cost side provides support, but in the medium - to long - term, new production capacity will make the fundamentals looser [11]. - Coking Coal and Coke: There is a short - term surplus of coking coal, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [12]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Hurricane disturbances in Australia have affected manganese ore shipments, and coking coal provides cost support. The demand for ferroalloys from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, with large de - stocking pressure [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and short - term upward momentum still exists. The price fluctuates at a high level [13]. - Fuel Oil: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have restricted the inflow of regional oil. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has tightened significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply gap will support the spot premium and refinery profits in the short - term [13][14]. - Asphalt: Geopolitical disturbances have led to short - term price increases in crude oil, and in the short - term, geopolitical factors are the core determinants [14]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have provided cost support, and there are risks of reduced production in refineries. The market is short - term volatile and strong [15]. - LPG: The futures price has risen significantly driven by capital sentiment. The fundamentals provide limited support, and it enters a high - level shock in the short - term [15]. - Methanol: The situation in Iran threatens production and transportation, and geopolitical games are the core logic. The supply - demand pattern is dominated by geopolitics, and device uncertainties increase volatility [16]. - PP and Propylene: The fundamentals are still strong, and they are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend before the geopolitical risks are eliminated [17]. - Plastic: If the conflict continues, it is expected to run strongly; if the situation eases, some risk premiums will be withdrawn, but it is difficult to fall back to the pre - event level in the short - term [17]. - Rubber: Synthetic rubber has risen significantly driven by energy costs and geopolitics, while natural rubber is under pressure from weak macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand structure supports the valuation [18]. - Soda Ash: The daily production remains high, and the demand is stable but weak. The inventory performance is better than expected, and the price movement is restricted by supply - demand and macro - factors [18]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The price oscillates under the combined action of supply - demand and cost [19][20]. - Caustic Soda: The supply has tightened marginally, and the demand has improved marginally. The overall supply - demand pattern has improved, and the futures price is jointly driven by fundamentals and market sentiment [20]. Agricultural Products - Hog: The market is in a complex game stage. In the short - term, the hog price may continue to bottom around 10 yuan/kg, and the subsequent trend depends on whether cash - flow pressure can force capacity out - clearing [21]. - Oilseeds: The Sino - US negotiation in April has been postponed. In the short - term, the spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is being repaired [21]. - Oils: In the short - term, it oscillates. The price of crude oil is the core influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia and the US [22]. - Cotton: Geopolitical conflicts have led to crude - oil fluctuations and increased macro - risks. In the short - term, the price has fallen, but in the medium - to long - term, the downstream demand has resilience, and the lower support is stable [23]. - Sugar: The expected sugar production in Brazil has been lowered, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has made capital cautious. The domestic supply - demand pattern is stable, and the sugar price oscillates [23]. - Egg: The supply of small - sized eggs is tight in some areas, and the feed price provides cost support. The short - term price adjusts slightly, and the upward space is limited [24]. - Apple: The Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is progressing, and the market is polarized. The fundamentals and delivery logic support the futures price, which maintains a strong - oscillating pattern [24]. - Jujube: The market focus is on the demand side, and the downstream sales are mediocre. The price is under pressure and may oscillate at a low level [25].