广发期货《农产品》日报-20260323

Sector Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding sector investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been postponed to mid - May, making the future of soybean procurement uncertain. From January to February 2026, China imported 150 million tons of US soybeans, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, while imports from Brazil increased by 83%. The international crude oil price is high, which supports the price of soybean as a raw material for biodiesel, but a sharp increase is unlikely. Domestically, the inspection of Brazilian soybeans has extended the customs clearance time, but the supply of soybeans remains sufficient. The spot basis price of soybean oil is affected. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to fluctuate around 4,600 ringgit. After the end of the Eid al - Fitr, palm oil production will resume growth, which will suppress the market performance. Rapeseed oil futures have been consolidating at a high level. Oil mills have been actively purchasing Canadian rapeseed and selling forward basis positions. The basis price is expected to oscillate. Overall, the oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and will likely show a complex trend [1]. Cotton - USDA's weekly cotton contract signing has declined slightly, with Vietnam being the main buyer, and China has significantly increased its imports of US cotton. A 30 - million - ton sliding - scale tariff quota has been officially issued, and the price difference between domestic and international cotton has narrowed. The drought in the main US cotton - producing areas persists, and the cotton inspection progress has exceeded 100%, with an expected final inspection volume of around 3.05 million tons. US cotton is expected to fluctuate widely between 65 - 70 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the issuance of additional quotas has led to a rapid narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international cotton, but it remains at a relatively high level. If the international cotton market does not rise, Zhengzhou cotton will face pressure, but the strong demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises will provide support. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Sugar - Due to rainfall in the main sugar - producing areas, the soil moisture has improved, and the expected cane crushing volume in the 26/27 season in the central - southern region of Brazil has been raised to 620 - 630 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 25 million tons. However, due to sugar mills' preference for ethanol production, the estimated sugar production in Brazil has been lowered. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is coming to an end. As of March 15, the cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The final sugar production in India this season is expected to be lower. Internationally, there are many positive factors, and the raw sugar market is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term. In China, from January to February 2026, the total sugar imports were 520,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. The spot market sales are weak, but the price is stable above 5,400 yuan per ton. The futures market is strong due to the overall strength of commodities and potential policy expectations, but the weak production and sales performance in February and the significant year - on - year increase in industrial inventory will limit the upward space. In the short term, sugar futures are likely to remain at a high level and oscillate strongly [4]. Red Dates - The red dates market has entered the off - season. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, most of the arriving goods are sub - standard dates, and the supply of finished products is small. Sellers are eager to sell. The Guangdong Ruyifang market has weak trading, with low consumer demand and weak stocking willingness among traders. The inventory reduction is slow, and the registration of futures warehouse receipts has decreased year - on - year. Affected by macro - funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market has rebounded slightly in the low - valuation range, but the upward movement of futures prices is limited by the weak market reality. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and weather changes [5]. Apples - With the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market's purchasing willingness has increased. The proportion of high - quality apples in the market is still low, the mainstream price is stable, and the price of high - quality apples in some areas has increased slightly. Recently, some buyers looking for high - quality apples have shifted from the western to the Shandong production areas, and the inquiry for high - quality apples in Qixia, Shandong has increased significantly, with a slight increase in transactions. The foreign trade orders are performing well. As seasonal fruits are out of season, the demand for apples is gradually released, and the national apple inventory is continuously decreasing. As of March 18, 2026, the inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from the previous week, and the decline rate has accelerated. In the short term, driven by demand and supported by low inventory, the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, due to the rising temperature and the need for cash before the spring plowing, farmers in the production areas are more willing to sell their grains. Coupled with continuous policy releases, the supply is slightly increasing, and the price is stable with a slight downward trend. The price at the northern ports has decreased slightly due to the increase in the collection volume. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is continuously increasing, and there is still a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises are suffering losses and have a general demand for high - priced corn, and some areas are using wheat as a substitute. The wheat auction volume has increased to 800,000 tons, which supplements the supply to some extent. In the short term, the increase in corn supply and the substitution of wheat will put pressure on the price, but the rigid demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises will limit the decline. Overall, the price will remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to future policy releases [9]. Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - The US soybean market is worried about export prospects, and the potential biodiesel policy has been postponed to April, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. However, the oil price provides support, limiting the decline of US soybeans. In the domestic market, there are concerns about the continuity of shutdowns and supplies, so the提货 enthusiasm is high, and oil mills are eager to maintain prices. The inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the soybean meal price. Currently, the short - term arrival of goods is tight, supporting the spot price. Although US soybeans have declined, there is a possibility that the Brazilian premium will rebound. The soybean meal market is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March. There is a negative expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is limited [12]. Pigs - Recently, the pig slaughter volume has been large, and group farms have increased their sales. The average slaughter weight has remained high, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, and the price in some weight segments has been inverted, which is not conducive to the entry of secondary fattening. In the off - season of demand, the downstream procurement is slowly recovering, and although the slaughter volume has increased, the boost is limited. The market is currently focusing on secondary fattening and frozen product warehousing. The upward pressure is significant, the capital is tight, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The overall motivation for slaughterhouses to enter the market is limited, and most of the inventory increase is passive. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the cost is rising, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is also not conducive to holding pigs for fattening. It is expected that both futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, and there is a possibility that the near - month contracts will fall below 10,000 [14]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled hens has been high recently and has shown signs of decline. Farmers' willingness to cull has increased, and the number of culled hens has increased slightly. The number of newly - laying hens has increased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the market supply is still relatively loose, but due to the light inventory pressure in each link, the shipping pressure on the supply side next week is expected to be relatively small. On the demand side, the current market demand is still weak. The terminal mainly consumes inventory, and the procurement rhythm is slow. Food enterprises adopt a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices and have not formed a continuous increase in demand. However, with the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking next week, the festival effect is expected to gradually appear. The increase in short - distance travel may drive the consumption in the catering channel to increase, and supermarkets are expected to increase promotional efforts, which will stimulate the purchasing intention of households. Therefore, the market demand is expected to improve temporarily under the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. Overall, with the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, there is a possibility of a phased improvement, but considering the continuous supply pressure and the adverse impact of rising temperatures on storage, the egg price is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On March 20, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,950 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The basis of Y2605 was 322 yuan/ton, up 9.52%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 300. The number of warehouse receipts was 24,892, down 1.78%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,748 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was - 798 yuan/ton, up 4.77%. The price difference between 2605 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,090 yuan/ton, up 7.63%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in May was 10,171.5 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2602 was 1,248 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,308 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The futures price of OIROS was 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The basis of O1605 was 432 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 400. The number of warehouse receipts was 805, unchanged [1]. - Inventory and Market Conditions: The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2 million tons. The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants in China was 621,000 tons, down 24.36% [1]. Cotton - Futures Market: On March 23, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10.53%. The trading volume of the main contract was 592,451, down 4.41%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,400, down 0.30%; the number of effective forecasts was 328, up 1.55% [2]. - Spot Market: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 16,480 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The CC Index of 3128B was 16,649 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The FC Index of M: 1% was 13,118 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1,265 yuan/ton, down 5.88%; the price difference between 3128B and the 09 contract was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 7.13%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% was 3,531 yuan/ton, up 2.79% [2]. - Industry Conditions: The yarn inventory was 0, down 100%. The industrial inventory was 1.024 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 19.0%. The bonded area inventory was 471,000 tons, up 9.8%. The inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, down 1.2%. The inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s was - 2,213.90 yuan/ton, up 5.6%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, up 7.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles was 0.60%, down 82.9%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%. The export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. Sugar - Futures Market: On March 23, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,439 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,469 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 30 yuan/ton, down 30.43%. The trading volume of the main contract was 354,040, down 4.86%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 0 [4]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,315 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 21 yuan/ton, down 51.16%; the basis in Kunming was - 124 yuan/ton, down 21.57%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,292 yuan/ton, up 2.78%; the import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5,446 yuan/ton, up 2.85%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning price was - 1,168 yuan/ton, up 9.03%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning price was - 14 yuan/ton, up 91.52% [4]. - Industry Conditions: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%. The sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, up 17.03%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi was 3.659 million tons, up 11.43%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, up 48.72% [4]. Red Dates - Futures Market: On March 23, the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price of red dates 2607 was 9,030 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9,235 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The price difference between 5 - 7 contracts was - 190 yuan/ton, up 2.56%; the price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The trading volume was 170,990, down 1.12%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,112, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 174, unchanged; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,286, unchanged [5]. - **Spot Market