大越期货尿素早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. Although there will be some device overhauls in the short term, daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between export and domestic markets has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited due to guidance. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year. There will be some device overhauls in the short term, but daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between export and domestic markets has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited due to guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 24, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.3%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 million tons (- 14.2 million tons), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, the recovery of industrial demand, the differentiation of agricultural demand, and the depletion of inventory, it is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Urea Price - Positive factors: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. - Negative factors: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3.3 Market Data - Spot market: The price of the spot delivery product is 1860, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1870, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1860, unchanged; the FOB China price is 4910 [6]. - Futures market: The price of the 05 contract is 1884, up 43; the basis is - 24, down 43; the price of UR01 is 1910, up 40; the price of UR05 is 1884, up 43; the price of UR09 is 1943, up 49 [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 8712, up 213; the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 million tons, unchanged; the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 million tons, unchanged; the UR port inventory is 16.7 million tons, unchanged [6]. 3.4 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption has also been increasing, with consumption growth rates of 12.8% in 2019, 17.9% in 2020, 2.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022, 5.9% in 2023, and 8.4% in 2024 [9].