大越期货天胶早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber, considering that the Middle - East situation has triggered bullish sentiment, but the natural rubber market has entered a bearish season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are as follows: the spot is relatively strong; the inventory in Qingdao is accumulating, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, which is neutral. The basis is - 145 with the spot price at 16000, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is neutral. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on March 23. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is mentioned but no value is given [8] - Inventory: The exchange inventory has changed little recently. The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. The import volume has declined. The production and sales of automobiles have declined, while the tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [14][17][20][23][29][32] - Base Difference: The basis weakened on March 23 [35] 3.3 Multiple - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - Likely to Fall Factors: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6]